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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and
recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to
become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center
of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's
center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB
both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification
to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.
Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track
forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer
ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering
influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns
west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly
parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official
forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in
coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should
continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any
northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches
for portions of this coastline.
Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as
Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For
this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models
showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
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