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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 PM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Core convection, while waning somewhat over Celia this evening,
remains fairly well-organized, with obvious banding features
wrapping around the western semi-circle of the tropical cyclone.
Several microwave passes, including a GPM pass at 0042 UTC also
depict this organization, with an attempt at a banding-type
eye feature open to the southeast. The latest round of satellite
estimates are mostly unchanged from earlier today, but given the
previous lackluster scatterometer data, the initial intensity has
been held at 55 kt this advisory.
Celia continues to move to the west-northwest with a current motion
at 300/6 kt. The forward motion of the cyclone is expected to
gradually increase by early next week as northward mid-level ridging
strengthens and expands westward. Once again there are few changes
to the track forecast from the prior cycle, and the latest NHC
forecast is just a hint faster, blending the reliable consensus aids
TVCE and HCCA.
Per the latest SHIPS guidance, Celia is now over sub 26 C
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). These SSTs are expected to remain
between 25-26 C over the next 36 hours as Celia passes over the cold
wake of Blas, which moved over this general location a week ago.
While vertical wind shear is expected to remain low (below 10 kt)
with sufficently high mid-level moisture, Celia's radial wind-field
has become diffuse on its eastern side, without a distinct radius of
maximum wind. This structural change is partially related to the
ongoing convection well away from Celia's core to the southeast,
associated with monsoonal flow over warmer SSTs. The GFS and SHIPS
guidance still insist on Celia becoming a hurricane, while the most
recent HWRF/HMON runs (which are atmosphere-ocean coupled) indicate
weakening. A compromise of these two possibilities is to indicate
only slight additional strengthening for Celia over the next 12-24
hours, with gradual weakening beginning thereafter. The latest NHC
intensity forecast lies between IVCN and HCCA guidance and no longer
makes Celia a hurricane. As the storm moves over increasing cool
SSTs, it is expected to gradually lose its convection, becoming a
remnant low by the end of the forecast period. This status could
occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the ECMWF model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 25/0300Z 17.8N 109.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.2N 110.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.7N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.7N 115.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 20.9N 119.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 21.8N 124.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 22.5N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Papin
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