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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
900 AM MDT Fri Jun 24 2022
Little by little, Celia is becoming better organized. Deep-layer
shear has decreased markedly from a few days ago, but the cyclone
still appears to be in the process of mixing out some of the dry
air that got into the circulation. Subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates now range from 55 to 65 kt, therefore
Celia's estimated intensity is increased to 55 kt on this advisory.
Celia is moving slowly toward the west-northwest (290/7 kt) to the
south of a mid-level ridge that stretches across the southern
United States and northern Mexico. The ridge is not particularly
strong, however, and this pattern is likely to cause Celia to slow
down further to around 5 kt during the next 12-24 hours. After 24
hours, the ridge is expected to strengthen and expand westward,
causing Celia to gradually accelerate through day 5. The guidance
envelope is tightly packed, and the updated NHC track forecast is
unchanged from the 09z forecast.
Shear diagnoses from the SHIPS model indicate that deep-layer shear
is likely to be less than 10 kt during the entire 5-day forecast
period. However, the limiting factor to Celia's intensity will be
sea surface temperatures. Celia still has an opportunity to
strengthen further, possibly to a hurricane, during the next 24
hours or so before it begins to cross the tight SST gradient near
Socorro Island. Gradual weakening is forecast after 36 hours over
colder waters, and Celia is likely to lose its deep convection and
become post-tropical by day 4.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 24/1500Z 17.1N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 109.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 17.9N 110.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 18.5N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 19.1N 113.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 19.6N 115.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.5N 122.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z 22.4N 126.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
$$
Forecaster Berg
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