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Tropical Storm Celia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Tue Jun 21 2022
Recent scatterometer data suggest that Celia's surface circulation
is stretched from northeast to southwest, and it's possible that the
center is re-forming closer to the deep convection. Tropical-storm-
force winds are confined to the southwestern quadrant (within the
convection), and the least-questionable of the two ASCAT passes
suggests that peak winds are near 40 kt. This is a little higher
than the subjective Dvorak estimates but equal to the latest
UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate.
Celia appears to have turned toward the west-northwest, and with
the center being tugged westward by the convection, has sped up a
little bit with a motion of 285/13 kt. A strong subtropical ridge
centered over the southern United States and Mexico is likely to
keep Celia on a west-northwestward trajectory for the next 5 days,
with a gradual decrease in forward speed expected through Friday.
While the UKMET has come closer in line with the other models on
this cycle, the HWRF remains a southern outlier, likely because it
is showing more immediate intensification to a hurricane within 24
hours. This scenario does not appear reasonable given the current
shear conditions, and the NHC forecast remains farther north,
closer to the model consensus aids and the 1500 UTC forecast.
Moderate-to-strong shear from the east-northeast is likely to
continue affecting Celia for the next 36 hours or so. Some
continued gradual strengthening is still possible, however, and the
NHC forecast is at the low end of the intensity guidance during
that period. After 36 hours, the official forecast is closer to the
model consensus aids ICON and HCCA as deep-layer shear decreases
and SSTs remain above 26C, and Celia is forecast to become a
hurricane by Thursday. Some weakening is anticipated over the
weekend once Celia reaches sub-26C ocean waters.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 12.5N 101.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 13.0N 102.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 14.5N 106.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 15.3N 107.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 16.0N 108.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.6N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 17.8N 112.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.2N 115.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Berg
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