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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Mon Jun 20 2022
Celia remains a sheared tropical cyclone south of southern Mexico
with deep convection confined to the west of the center due to about
20 kt of east-northeasterly shear. Even though the center is still
exposed, deep convection has increased a little today and banding
features are becoming a little better established on the system's
south and west sides. Satellite intensity estimates range from 25 to
37 kt, and the initial wind speed is nudged up to 30 kt based on
that data. Unfortunately, ASCAT missed the system this afternoon.
After moving south of due west for the past 18-24 hours, Celia has
now turned westward and picked up speed. The latest initial motion
estimate is 275/11 kt. Celia is expected to continue westward for
the next couple of days as it remains steered by a mid-level ridge
to its north. After that time, a slightly slower west-northwest
motion is expected as it moves on the southwest side of the ridge.
Although the models generally agree on the large-scale steering
pattern, there is a fair amount of spread in forward speed and
direction. The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the
previous one and still lies to the north of the consensus models,
leaning toward the GFS and ECMWF models.
The ongoing east-northeasterly shear is expected to persist for
another day, so strengthening will likely be limited in the short
term. However, the shear is expected to lessen after that time, and
given the moist airmass and high SSTs, steady strengthening seems
likely between 24 and 96 hours. By the end of the forecast period,
Celia will likely be moving over cooler SSTs, which should end the
strengthening trend. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly
higher peak than the previous one and is in best agreement with the
IVCN model.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 20/2100Z 12.0N 96.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.1N 98.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.4N 100.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 12.9N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 13.4N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 14.4N 105.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 15.4N 106.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 18.3N 111.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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