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Tropical Depression Celia Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032022
400 PM CDT Sat Jun 18 2022
Small puffs of deep convection have been occuring off and on
primarily west of the small and shallow vortex of Celia
this afternoon. Earlier, I was fortunate to receive both
ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C passes over the small circulation, and
they revealed the wind field has spun down further, with peak-wind
retrievals of only 25 kt. This value also matches the latest
objective UW-CIMSS Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT) estimate. The
initial intensity this advisory is therefore being lowered to 25
kt.
After appearing to turn leftward earlier today, this afternoon Celia
has either completely stalled or is drifting ever so slightly
northward. Despite this temporary pause, the track guidance remains
adamant that a more distinct westward motion will soon occur, with
even some west-southwestward component of motion in the next 24-48
hours as the mid-level ridge to the north takes over. However, its
possible some of the guidance trackers are also picking up a center
relocation into the persistent convection ongoing south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec and the present vortex is simply too shallow to feel
the increasing easterly mid to upper-level flow currently. In any
event, the track guidance this cycle is quite similar to the
previous advisory, if just a touch slower than before. The NHC track
is fairly close to the previous one, though does show a bit slower
motion the first 12-24 hours due to the initial hesitation in Celia
today. This track lies near the reliable consensus aids.
It is quite clear easterly vertical wind shear continues to disrupt
Celia's convective structure. With the majority of the deep
convection occuring outside of the storm's radius of maximum wind,
this convection is likely doing more harm than good to the small
vortex. While the intensity forecast continues to show little change
in strength over the next 36 hours, it remains possible that Celia
could briefly degenerate as a tropical cyclone or reform further
west closer to more widespread convection. The shear is still
expected to decrease as sea-surface temperatures warm after 60
hours, and assuming Celia is still a coherent system at that time,
intensification remains possible. The intensity forecast for early
next week is identical to this morning and is still very close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus guidance.
Key Messages:
1. Areas of heavy rainfall are expected north of Celia's track
across portions of far southern Mexico and Guatemala through Sunday.
This rainfall may cause some instances of flash flooding and
mudslides across the region.
2. Even though Celia remains fairly close to the coast of El
Salvador and Guatemala, its wind field is small and weak and direct
wind impacts are not anticipated.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 18/2100Z 13.0N 90.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 12.8N 91.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 12.5N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 12.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 11.9N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 12.0N 98.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 12.5N 100.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 13.7N 104.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 15.0N 107.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
Forecaster Papin
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