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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
500 AM HST Mon Aug 16 2021
There has been little notable change in Linda's structure on
satellite imagery. The hurricane continues to possess annular
characteristics, with a well-defined warm eye up to +15 C
surrounded by a ring of -60 to -65 C cloud top temperatures
associated with the eyewall. The eyewall was also well-defined on a
recent 1003 UTC AMSR-2 microwave pass. The most recent subjective
Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB were T5.5/102 kt and
T5.0/90 kt, while the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate was T5.1/92 kt.
Thus, Linda is being maintained as a 90-kt hurricane for this
advisory, though this might be a bit on the conservative side.
The initial motion estimate continues off to the west-southeast, at
255/8 kt. The most recent track forecast is mostly just an update of
the previous one. Linda is expected to gradually make a rightward
turn from the west-southwest to the west-northwest as a strong
mid-level ridge to the north shifts its orientation. The latest NHC
track forecast remains is good agreement with the track consensus
guidance, blending the TVCN and HCCA aids.
Linda remains in a very low wind shear environment, with SHIPS
guidance diagnosing less than 5-kt of shear over the hurricane
currently. Even though sea-surface temperatures remain only
marginally warm along the Linda's forecast track, its continued
annular structure argues for only very gradual weakening over the
next 48 hours. Afterwards, Linda will cross over the 26 C isotherm
into cooler waters, and a faster rate of weakening is anticipated
after that time. The latest NHC intensity forecast over the first
couple of days remains higher than the majority of the model
guidance, and is closest to the ECMWF forecast. After Linda begins
to move over cooler waters in 60 h, the intensity forecast is
brought back down towards the intensity consensus. At the end of the
forecast period, Linda is expected to become a post-tropical gale
once deep organized convection ceases, as suggested by the GFS and
ECMWF simulated brightness temperature at that time frame.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/1500Z 17.9N 123.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.6N 124.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 17.9N 128.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 18.5N 130.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 19/0000Z 19.2N 133.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 20.1N 136.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 21.6N 141.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 22.6N 146.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
$$
Forecaster Papin/Brennan
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