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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021
There hasn't been much change to Linda's structure since this
morning. The hurricane's center is embedded within a small Central
Dense Overcast, and a dimple is evident in visible satellite images
where an eye would be likely to form. For the most part, satellite
intensity estimates have not changed from this morning, and a 1550
UTC ASCAT-A pass showed peak winds in the 55-60 kt range. Given
that instrument's typical undersampling, especially for a small
cyclone, the 65-kt initial intensity still seems appropriate.
Linda is moving toward the west-northwest, or 300/8 kt, to the
south of a mid-tropospheric ridge located over northern Mexico.
This ridge, and a stronger mid-level high developing over the
western United States, are expected to continue driving Linda
toward the west-northwest for the next 2-3 days. By days 4 and 5,
another mid-level high is forecast to develop between Hawaii and
Alaska, and that feature is likely to block Linda's northward
progress, and possibly even cause a south-of-due-west motion by the
end of the forecast period. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this scenario, and the updated NHC track forecast has
been nudged southward mainly on days 4 and 5. It should be noted
that this new forecast is not as far south as several of the track
models, and additional southward adjustments may be required in
subsequent forecasts.
Various shear analyses suggest that the northerly shear affecting
Linda may have decreased slightly, with the magnitude now on the
order of 10-15 kt. SHIPS diagnostics indicate that this level of
shear is likely to continue for another 24 hours or so, and then it
could decrease further and enable some gradual strengthening.
Models generally show Linda's intensity peaking and leveling off in
the 36-60 hour window. After 60 hours, Linda is expected to move
into a less favorable thermodynamic environment, highlighted by
colder sea surface temperatures and drier, more stable air, and
weakening is therefore shown on days 3-5. One important note is
that further southward shifts in the forecast track would keep
Linda over warmer waters and potentially slow the cyclone's
weakening trend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 15.3N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 110.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 17.0N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.9N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 18.7N 116.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 19.0N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.6N 124.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 18.5N 128.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
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Forecaster Berg
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