HOME	PRODUCTS	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM PST SAT NOV 04 2000
 
LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM GLOBAL...MIAMI...AND
WASHINGTON ARE ALL GIVING 25 KNOTS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
QUICKSCAT DATA.  HOWEVER...A BURST OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS SUPPORTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A HIGHER
WIND SPEED NEAR THE SURFACE IN THIS AREA.  THUS...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KNOTS.  ALTHOUGH SHIPS WANTS TO STRENGTHEN
THE SYSTEM BECAUSE OF WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND WARM SSTS... THE
OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BE MORE ILL DEFINED THAN 12 HOURS AGO. 
THEREFORE...A SLOW INCREASE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST.
 
THE LATEST CENTER FIXES ESTIMATED FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES
FROM GLOBAL...MIAMI AND WASHINGTON SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
CONTINUED TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS CURRENTLY
ESTIMATED TO BE 275/11.  THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PRODUCE A MOSTLY WESTERLY TRACK FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.  HOWEVER...A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SOUTHWARD TO 10N.  THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REINFORCED AND ESSENTIALLY
REMAIN IN PLACE...A SCENARIO WHICH WOULD MOST LIKELY SLOW AND TURN
THE SYSTEM MORE TO THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH BY 72 HOURS.  BOTH THE AVN
AND GFDL MOVE THE SYSTEM SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IN THE EARLY
FORECAST PERIODS BUT TURN THE SYSTEM ALMOST DUE NORTH IN THE LATER
PERIODS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF AND A LITTLE
FASTER IN THE EARLY FORECAST PERIODS THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT
SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
BAMD FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0900Z 10.8N  92.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     04/1800Z 10.9N  93.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     05/0600Z 11.2N  95.7W    35 KTS
36HR VT     05/1800Z 11.7N  97.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     06/0600Z 12.6N  99.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     07/0600Z 15.0N 100.0W    45 KTS
 
 
NNNN