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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2000

THE SYSTEM IS IN THE ORGANIZING PHASE.  EARLIER...THERE WAS
PRIMARILY A COLD CENTRAL OVERCAST FEATURE.  HOWEVER...RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW BANDING FEATURES STARTING TO DEVELOP.  BECAUSE
OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY IN CENTER POSITION RELATIVE TO THE CLOUD
FEATURES...THE CYCLONE IS NOT BEING UPGRADED AT THIS TIME. 
HOWEVER...IT IS HIGHLY LIKELY THAT WE WILL HAVE A NEW TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.  UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE AREA...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK...AND THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OCEAN WATERS.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
AN AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST...BUT THIS
FEATURE IS MOVING WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE
CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE AND SHOWS
THE SYSTEM ATTAINING HURRICANE STATUS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

BECAUSE THE CENTER IS SO HARD TO FIND...INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION
ARE RATHER UNCERTAIN.  LATEST FIXES ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK.  I HAVE TRIED TO MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THE
PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.  A DEEP-LAYER MEAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO THE
NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THEREFORE A
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED.  THE CURRENT
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IS
NEARLY THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET. OFFICE AND NOGAPS
SOLUTIONS.  THE LATEST AVN FORECAST IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THIS
TRACK.  NONETHELESS IT IS IMPORTANT TO BEAR IN MIND THAT 72-HOUR
FORECAST POSITIONS CAN HAVE ERRORS OF A FEW HUNDRED MILES.

A HURRICANE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0900Z 13.5N  47.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1800Z 13.9N  49.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/0600Z 14.8N  52.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     21/1800Z 15.6N  55.7W    60 KTS
48HR VT     22/0600Z 16.5N  59.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     23/0600Z 18.0N  65.0W    70 KTS
 
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