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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151127
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area
of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south-southwest of
the coast of Guatemala.  Environmental conditions are conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression or tropical
storm is expected to form within the next couple of days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near the coast of
southeastern Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
currently occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El
Salvador is forecast to spread westward over Guatemala today, and
across southern Mexico by Wednesday.  These rains could cause
flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.  Interests
in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure.  Some development of this system is possible during the
next few days while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts