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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161744
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A tropical wave located over western Nicaragua, southwestern
Honduras, and eastern El Salvador will move westward into the
eastern Pacific Ocean later this evening. The combination of the
wave and a strong northerly wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
is expected to develop a low pressure system a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and southeastern Mexico by late Wednesday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late
Thursday or early Friday while the system moves west-northwestward
near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A weak area of low pressure located about 900 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart