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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122309
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized 
thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred miles south of the 
coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable 
for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves 
generally west-northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja 
California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected 
to move west-northwestward into less favorable environmental 
conditions during the next couple of days, and its development 
chances appear to be decreasing.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the 
Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible 
during the next several days as it moves little, remaining well 
south of the Hawaiian Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the 
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a concentrated area 
of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear 
favorable for gradual development of this system during the next 
several days as it moves slowly northwestward, remaining southwest 
of the Hawaiian Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the 
week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the 
end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally 
west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi