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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook



497 
ABPZ20 KNHC 190514
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur
southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure.  The large size of the system and
land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance,
and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming
are decreasing.  Regardless of development, this disturbance is
expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches,
with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of Baja
California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora through Thursday. This rainfall
may cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Some of the
moisture from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into
the southwestern United States on Wednesday and Thursday, enhancing
rainfall potential and possible flash flooding in that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart