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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook



470 
ABPZ20 KNHC 162310
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Satellite data indicate that a small low pressure area located
about 650 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to
become better defined, however, the associated showers and
thunderstorms still lack organization.  Any significant increase
in the organization of the thunderstorm activity would lead to the
formation of a tropical depression later tonight or on Tuesday
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A larger area of low pressure located a few hundred miles
south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing widespread
showers and thunderstorms.  Although the circulation of this system
is not yet well defined, environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for the development of a tropical depression within the
next day or so.  This disturbance is expected to move to the
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico.
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave.  Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi