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857 
ABPZ20 KNHC 121148
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of 
the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a 
tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle 
part of this week while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central and Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja 
California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible over the next 
day or two before the system moves west-northwestward into a less 
favorable environment. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles 
south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is 
possible during the next several days as it moves slowly westward 
across the central Pacific, remaining well south of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Well South-Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (Ex-CP90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a trough of low 
pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the 
Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for 
gradual development of this system during the next several days as 
it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward, remaining southwest 
of the Hawaiian Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of this 
week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system later this week while it moves generally 
west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin