NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER and
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER

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000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141151
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized and are 
producing gusty winds in association with a tropical wave located a 
few hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern 
Mexico.  Environmental conditions are favorable for continued 
development.  A tropical depression or tropical storm is expected 
to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally 
west-northwestward, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
For additional information, including gale warnings, please see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

Well South of the Hawaiian Islands (CP91):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has decreased in association with a 
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of 
the Hawaiian Islands.  Earlier satellite wind data showed that the  
system lacks a well-defined surface circulation.  A tropical 
depression could still form over the next day or two while the 
system moves little.  The disturbance is expected to move into less 
favorable environmental conditions later this week, likely ending 
its chances of development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Well Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (CP90):
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the 
southwest of the Hawaiian Islands continues to produce an area of 
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions 
appear favorable for gradual development, and the system could 
become a tropical depression later in the week while it moves 
slowly northwestward, remaining well southwest of the Hawaiian 
Islands. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several 
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.  Environmental 
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system 
thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end 
of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well 
offshore of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

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High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEP1, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on 
the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEP1.php

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Katz