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Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook



000
ABNT20 KNHC 282343
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 28 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Sam, located several hundred miles east of the northern Leeward 
Islands.

Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low 
pressure system located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic 
several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is gradually 
becoming better defined. The associated showers and thunderstorms 
are showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form during the next day or so while the disturbance 
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a 
a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are conducive 
for gradual development, and a tropical depression could still form 
during the next couple of days if the disturbance does not get 
absorbed into the stronger low pressure system located to its east. 
The broad low is expected to move slowly west-northwestward to 
westward over the central tropical Atlantic during the next few 
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A well-defined low pressure area associated with the remnants of 
Peter is located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. 
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, 
and the chances of this system becoming a short-lived tropical 
depression or storm appear to be decreasing. This system is expected 
to move northeastward at about 10 mph into a region of very strong 
upper-level winds on Wednesday.  Additional information on this 
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Stewart