000
ABNT20 KNHC 131119
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Nicholas, located over the western Gulf of Mexico. 

A tropical wave has emerged off the west coast of Africa near 
the coasts of Guinea and Sierra Leone.  Environmental conditions 
are forecast to be conducive for gradual development of this
disturbance, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late 
this week while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across 
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form by midweek a couple of 
hundred miles north of the southeastern or central Bahamas as a 
tropical wave interacts with an upper-level trough.  Some gradual 
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form later this week while the system moves 
north-northwestward or northward across the western Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under 
WMO header WTNT34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Nicholas are issued under 
WMO header WTNT24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT4.

$$
Forecaster Stewart