AXPZ20 KNHC 302110
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 09N77W to
07N92W to 08N110W. It then continues W of surface trough from
08N114W to 08N116W. The ITCZ continues from 08N116W to 09N122W,
then resumes W of a surface trough near 09N125W to 08N132W to
09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 04N E of
84W, and from 06N to 11N between 106W and 117W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
The pressure gradient between a surface high pressure over the
Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the monsoon
trough S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to support
strong to near gale-force N to NE winds through the weekend. Seas
have fallen below 12 ft, but will remain above 8 ft into the
weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5
These conditions will prevail into Wed, with moderate to locally
fresh NW winds developing at the entrance to the Gulf and the
southern half of the Gulf of California Wed night, then persist
through the rest of the week. Otherwise, light to gentle
variable winds will dominate the remainder offshore waters
through the forecast period.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue
into Sun with seas near 8 ft. Moderate S to SW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough or roughly S of 06N through the
weekend with seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Moderate N to NE winds
are forecast for the Gulf of Panama into tonight. Otherwise,
heavy showers and thunderstorms ongoing across the Colombia and
Panama offshore waters are forecast to prevail through at least
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A 1028 mb center of high pressure N of the area extends a ridge
southward to near 16N. The pressure gradient between the high
pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to
near 24N and west of about 120W. Seas are 5-8 ft across this
region. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 24N while
moderate to locally fresh SE winds are S of the ITCZ.
NW swell of 5 to 7 ft over the far NW forecast waters will
prevail through tonight. NW swell to 8 ft is across the far NW
forecast waters and will maintain seas near 8 ft across these NW
waters through tonight. Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft
will continue mainly from 13N to 23N and W of 130W through the
middle of the week as the ridge remains nearly stationary.