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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 262054

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 09N77W to 10N111W to 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N 
to 12N between 85W and 129W.  


Moderate to locally fresh N winds are dominating waters from Cabo
Corrientes northward, due to weakening high pressure in the Great
Basin. To the south, mainly gentle wind prevails. Seas from Cabo
Corrientes northward are 5 to 7 ft, with 3 to 5 ft seas to the 
south. Seas in the central and southern Gulf of California are 3
to 5 ft, with 1 to 3 ft seas to the north.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the Great Basin 
will gradually weaken and slide east this weekend, allowing winds
in the Gulf of California and adjacent waters to diminish. SW 
winds to the N and E of a low pressure passing N of the area Mon 
into Tue will develop in the northern Gulf of California Mon then
increase to strong Mon night. Looking ahead, strong gap winds 
are possible in the Tehuantepec region starting Wed night. 


Light to gentle variable winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft dominate
areas N of monsoon trough, with mainly moderate S to SW winds and
4 to 6 ft seas to the S. There is lesser seas of 2 to 4 ft in the
lee of the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and seas will persist
across the region into early next week as a weak pressure 
pattern prevails. Fresh gap winds will develop and pulse to 
strong each night across the Gulf of Papagayo region Mon night 
into Thu.


A 998 mb low pressure system is centered west of the area near 
29N147W. A stationary front to the east of the low extends N to 
S along 141W from 25N northward. Scattered moderate convection 
is noted along and east of the front to 137W. The associated 
pressure gradient is producing fresh SE winds across the NW 
corner of the forecast region, mainly N of 24N and W of 138W. 
Seas are 10 to 12 ft in this area in a combination of SE wind 
waves and NW swell. Farther to the southeast, moderate to fresh 
trade winds and seas 7 to 9 ft are evident from 13N to 21N 
between 120W and 130W, south of a broad area of high pressure 
dominating the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the extratropical cyclone west of the area 
will drift northward through tonight, then move NW on Sun while 
weakening. To the east of this system, fresh SE to S winds will 
persist across the waters north of 25N and west of 138W through 
early Sun morning. Large NW swell will continue to propagate 
across much of the northern and western waters through Sun night,
sending seas of 8 ft or greater as far east as 124W and as far 
south as 04N. Marine conditions will begin to gradually improve 
Mon through mid week. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is 
expected to approach the far NW waters Thu morning.