713 
AXPZ20 KNHC 102043
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across 
the Gulf of Mexico today, resulting in gale-force gap winds in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec that will reach storm-force tonight. 
Peak seas should reach around 20 ft tonight and Mon morning. 
Storm-force winds will end Mon morning, but gale- force winds and
rough seas will prevail in the region of Tehuantepec through 
Wed.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on the special
feature.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N92W. The ITCZ 
extends from 06N92W to 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 
moderate convection noted from 06N to 10N W of 121W and from 03N
to 06N E of 81W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a
Storm Warning for the Tehuantepec region due to gap winds.

High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin is forcing strong NW 
winds over the Gulf of California with seas 6-9 ft. This wind 
surge over the Gulf of California is also causing some fresh NE
gap winds just west of the Baja California peninsula. Elsewhere, 
surface ridging extends from a 1028 mb high off of California to 
near the Baja California and SW Mexico coasts, resulting in 
mainly gentle winds over the open Pacific waters. Seas over 
Pacific waters are generally 4 to 7 ft.

For the forecast outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the high 
pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue forcing strong 
NW winds over the Gulf of California through tonight. A 
recurrence of fresh to strong NW winds over the Gulf of 
California may begin Fri. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the NW 
Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south is forcing fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region with 
seas 5-7 ft. Gentle winds are occurring elsewhere with seas 3-6 
ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between higher pressure 
over the NW Caribbean and the monsoon trough to the south will 
continue forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the 
Papagayo region through the next several days. Gentle to moderate
breezes are expected elsewhere. Otherwise, storm-force gap winds
north of the area over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will generate 
large NW swell that will affect the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore waters tonight through Tue night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The pressure gradient between the surface ridging along the W
coast of Mexico and the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong NE to E
trades from 06N-20N west of 122W. Seas are 10-12 ft. Elsewhere, 
winds are gentle to moderate with 7-10 ft seas in large NW swell.

For the forecast, the surface ridge to the north will weaken as
it drifts S into the region Tue, diminishing the trades. Seas 
should drop below 8 ft Wed over the tradewind belt. Tonight into 
Mon night, fresh to strong NE winds associated with Tehuantepec 
gap winds will reach into the high seas waters to 10N105W with 
seas 8-12 ft. A large, long- period swell should reach the NW 
corner of the waters by Wed night and gradually decay while 
moving SE through the end of the week. 

$$
Konarik