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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 271543

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N98W to 05N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 108W and 
112W, and from 04N to 07N between 120W and 134W. A second and
active ITCZ is south of the equator.


The combination of a 1028 mb high pressure centered just N of the
area 31N131W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is leading
to fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters west of Baja
California, from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Moderate winds are 
south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle 
winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico, except for moderate to
fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California. Large NW swell of 9 
to 11 ft is still impacting the waters off Baja California. A 
satellite altimeter pass confirmed these seas. Combined seas in 
excess of 8 ft are occurring N of 17N W of 110W. Seas are 2 to 4
ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across the
offshore Mexican waters. 

For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the offshore waters of Baja California this afternoon, as high 
pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving 
toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft 
everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to 
strong NW winds will develop over the Gulf of California late this
morning and then diminish by Tue. A cold front will enter the 
Baja California Norte waters Wed and move into the northern Gulf 
of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are 
likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the 
front Wed night into early Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong
NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the 
front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California Norte 
offshore waters by late Thu in the wake of the front.


High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to 
strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo region, and
downwind to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the 
forecast waters.

For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly 
across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua 
through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected each 
night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this area. 
Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly beginning
Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas
downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast 
period. Long period SW swell should reach the waters between the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight and then last through much
of the remainder of the week.


Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds prevail north of the
ITCZ particularly from 06N to 24N and west of 122W. The 
combination of the NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade 
wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-11 ft across most of 
the area west of 110W. The exception is the NW corner of the 
forecast area, north of 24N and west of 130W, where a high 
pressure has gentle winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area. 
South of 15N and east of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail. 
Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft just W of 
the Galapagos Islands.

For the forecast, the large swell over open waters will gradually
subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10 
ft trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The 
area of fresh trades will also shrink slightly in areal extent 
from the ITCZ to 14N and west of 130W by Tue. Seas north of 22N 
will also continue to subside through early Tue. A new cold front
will enter the area Tue, extend from 30N122W to 26N134W to 
27N140W by early Wed, and from 30N118W to 24N130W to 24N140W by 
Wed evening. Large N swell associated with the front will move 
across the northern waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually 
subside as it moves southward Fri.