AXPZ20 KNHC 271543
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Mar 27 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 07N78W to 05N98W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N98W to 05N120W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 108W and
112W, and from 04N to 07N between 120W and 134W. A second and
active ITCZ is south of the equator.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
The combination of a 1028 mb high pressure centered just N of the
area 31N131W and lower pressures over northern Mexico is leading
to fresh to locally strong NW winds over the waters west of Baja
California, from Cabo San Lazaro northward. Moderate winds are
south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle
winds prevail elsewhere offshore Mexico, except for moderate to
fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California. Large NW swell of 9
to 11 ft is still impacting the waters off Baja California. A
satellite altimeter pass confirmed these seas. Combined seas in
excess of 8 ft are occurring N of 17N W of 110W. Seas are 2 to 4
ft in the Gulf of California, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere across the
offshore Mexican waters.
For the forecast, winds and seas will gradually diminish across
the offshore waters of Baja California this afternoon, as high
pressure dissipates ahead of the next low pressure system moving
toward California. Wave heights will subside below 8 ft
everywhere in Mexican waters by late Tue. Elsewhere, fresh to
strong NW winds will develop over the Gulf of California late this
morning and then diminish by Tue. A cold front will enter the
Baja California Norte waters Wed and move into the northern Gulf
of California Wed night. Strong to near gale force SW winds are
likely over the northern Gulf of California in advance of the
front Wed night into early Thu. At the same time, fresh to strong
NW winds are expected west of Baja California Norte behind the
front. Large NW swell will return to the Baja California Norte
offshore waters by late Thu in the wake of the front.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
High pressure north of the area continues to sustain fresh to
strong easterly trade winds in Gulf of Papagayo region, and
downwind to 89W. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or
weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent in the rest of the
For the forecast, strong easterly gap winds will pulse nightly
across the Gulf of Papagayo and the coast of southern Nicaragua
through at least Fri night. Seas of 6-7 ft are expected each
night, but will build to 8-9 ft mid to late week in this area.
Fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama nightly beginning
Tue night through the forecast period, with building seas
downwind of the Gulf of Panama late in the work week. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast
period. Long period SW swell should reach the waters between the
Galapagos Islands and Ecuador tonight and then last through much
of the remainder of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Fresh to locally strong NE to E trade winds prevail north of the
ITCZ particularly from 06N to 24N and west of 122W. The
combination of the NW swell and the shorter period NE to E trade
wind swell is producing combined seas of 8-11 ft across most of
the area west of 110W. The exception is the NW corner of the
forecast area, north of 24N and west of 130W, where a high
pressure has gentle winds. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in that area.
South of 15N and east of 110W, gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Seas decrease from about 8 ft near 115W to near 4 ft just W of
the Galapagos Islands.
For the forecast, the large swell over open waters will gradually
subside through Tue, when it will be confined mainly to a 8-10
ft trade wind swell from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. The
area of fresh trades will also shrink slightly in areal extent
from the ITCZ to 14N and west of 130W by Tue. Seas north of 22N
will also continue to subside through early Tue. A new cold front
will enter the area Tue, extend from 30N122W to 26N134W to
27N140W by early Wed, and from 30N118W to 24N130W to 24N140W by
Wed evening. Large N swell associated with the front will move
across the northern waters late Wed through Thu, then gradually
subside as it moves southward Fri.