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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 271553

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.


A trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W, where overnight scatterometer
data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
01N100W to 02N110W and to 05N125W, where it pauses just to the
east of a trough. It resumes just to the west of the trough to 
03N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 
strong convection is noted from the Equator to 04N between 
103W-110W, and also within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 117W-127W.


A broad jet stream branch that is to the southeast of a deep 
upper-level trough located well west of Baja California 
continues to advect ample tropical moisture in the form of
overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward Baja 
California. Isolated showers are possible underneath these
clouds. The clouds are spreading east-northeastward across 
northern Mexico and Texas. Fresh southwest winds are over 
the northern Gulf of California. Seas with these winds are 
3-4 ft. Fresh northwest winds are south of Cabo San Lucas to 
near 21N , while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the rest of
the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in the area 
described are 5-7 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore
waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the central and 
southern Gulf of California, moderate or weaker winds and slight 
to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the fresh southwest over the northern Gulf of 
California will diminish early this afternoon. Pulsing fresh 
winds are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo 
Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest
swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters 
north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding late Wed night. 
The next Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and 
continue through late Thu night as strong high pressure builds 
north of the basin supporting strong to near gale-force north 
winds. Conditions will improve Fri.


The gradient associated to high pressure over the western 
Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region as highlighted by an overnight
ASCAT satellite data pass. Seas over these waters are 6-8 ft. 
Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama, 
extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and 
early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to around 8 ft with the 
strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse
to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next
few days. 


A deep upper-level trough is over the northwest waters. A rather 
active subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast is located 
from 20N137W, northeastward to 26N125W and to the southern
California/norther Baja California. It is advecting ample broken
to overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward Baja 
California. These clouds extend southeastward to a line from
25N108W to 19N116W and to near 11N124W. Scattered showers are 
possible within these clouds north of about 22N. The trough 
is supporting a 1010 mb low centered near 30N123W. A trough 
extends from the low to 30N120W to 25N123W and to 20N130W.
Fresh to strong winds are west-southwest of the low north of 25N
between 126W-131W. Seas with these winds are 10-13 ft as observed 
in overnight altimeter satellite pass. Fresh to locally strong
northeast winds are south of 25N west of 128W. Seas in the area 
described are 8-11 ft due to long-period northwest to north 
swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is under 
the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure system located NW of the
Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate 
seas are present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned 1010 mb low is forecast to 
continue to weaken today as it slides eastward. The fresh to 
strong winds and seas of 10-13 ft associated with the low 
will diminish tonight into Wed. The fresh to locally strong 
northeast winds south of 25N and west of 128W will diminish 
in coverage, and be at mostly fresh speeds by late Wed night.
The 8-11 ft seas will subside to 8-9 ft in long-period north 
swell by late Wed. In the long-term, trade winds will increase 
again to fresh to locally strong starting late Fri over the 
western part of the area as a cold front begins to advance across
the north-central waters. A large set of northwest swell will 
accompany the front, with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater 
seas expected to reach from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 
20N140W. This set of northwest swell bring 12 ft and greater
seas to the far northern waters at that same time.