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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



653 
AXPZ20 KNHC 050900
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Aug 5 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is along 82W/83W, north of 02N into Panama, 
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 80W and 85W.

A tropical wave axis is along 121W from 02N to 17N, moving west 
at 15 kt. Isolated showers are observed from 07N to 10N between 
120W and 123W.

A tropical wave axis is along 130W from 01N to 17N, moving west 
at 15 kt. This wave is embedded in a moist unstable environment. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 
129W and 133W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough axis extends westward from 09N78W in Panama 
to 11N106W to 10N115W to 12N121W. The ITCZ extends from 11N123W 
to 11N130W to 09N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is observed from 07N to 14N between 86W and 96W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere 
from 05N to 14N between 77W and 103W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad ridge extends 36N151W to 34N131W to 28N119W. A trough is 
analyzed over the Baja California Peninsula. The gradient 
between these two synoptic features will continue to support 
moderate to fresh northwest to north winds, west of Baja 
California, and north of Cabo San Lazaro tonight through Sat 
night, with seas building to 6-8 ft.

Prevailing south to southeast winds in the Gulf of California 
will persist through the upcoming weekend, with seas of 3-5 ft.

Fresh northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse 
briefly to strong speeds at night through Thu, with seas to 6-7 
ft. Winds are expected to increase even stronger again this 
weekend, reaching to near gale force, along with higher seas, 
Sat night through early Mon.

Developing Low pressure may track northwestward over the western 
part of the offshore waters between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 
Manzanillo this weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

The monsoon trough is along 09N east of 90W. Moderate south to 
southwest winds continue south of the trough axis, with light 
and variable winds occurring north of trough.

Tropical waves migrating westward from the Caribbean Sea across 
Central America into the eastern Pacific are helping to induce 
widespread convective activity across the area. The tropical 
wave along 82.5W is forecast to be near 87W tonight, and reach 
to near 95W on Fri. Global model guidance suggests that this 
wave may develop into a low pressure system across the eastern 
Pacific within a few days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

The gradient between a broad ridge across northern waters and 
lower pressures in the tropics near the monsoon trough will 
support moderate to fresh trade winds from 12N to 26N, west of 
125W through the remainder of the week, with seas expected to be 
in the 5-7 ft range.

Long-period cross-equatorial southerly swell producing seas of 
7-8 ft is forecast to reach near 01N and the offshore waters of 
the Galapagos Islands on Fri.

$$
Mundell