000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111005
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Dec 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The most significant gap wind event
thus far of the season will occur across the Gulf of Tehuantepec
from early this morning through Fri morning as a strong cold 
front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and 
southeastern Mexico, followed by building high pressure. Winds 
will quickly reach gale-force around sunrise, then rapidly 
increase to strong gale-force by this afternoon, and briefly 
increase further to storm-force late this afternoon through 
evening. Seas will quickly build to 18 to 22 ft this evening and
tonight. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to extend 
to near 300 NM from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening. Gales 
are then forecast to persist through early Thu evening. Winds 
will gradually diminish to strong to near-gale force strength Thu
night and continue to pulse at night through early next week. 

Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong pressure gradient
continues early this morning between a 1036 mb high over the 
Great Basin of the western U.S. and troughing along the Sierra 
Madre Occidentales of northwest Mexico. This pattern is 
supporting strong to gale force N to NW winds through the entire
length of the Gulf of California. Recent satellite derived
scatterometer winds showed winds to minimal gale-force across
central portions of the Gulf, where peak seas are 10 to 12 ft. 
Fresh to strong N winds also surround Cabo San Lucas, and are 
offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This blast of strong northerly winds
is also forcing strong NE gap winds across most of the Baja 
Peninsula, spilling into the Pacific waters of Sebastian Vizcaino
Bay and southwest of Punta Eugenia, as well as offshore of Punta
Abreojos. Seas of 8 to 12 ft prevail from the northern Gulf along
30N into the southern Gulf waters. The strong high pressure north
of the Gulf will weaken this afternoon through tonight, leading
to quickly diminishing winds and seas across the basin.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 10N87W to 
06.5N99W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N99W to 08N111W to beyond 
07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted 
from 06.5N to 08.5N between 108W and 113W. Widely scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 13N to 17N between 126W and 
136W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information on
the Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning and the Gulf of California
Gale Warning.

Elsewhere, a weak ridge extends southeastward across the waters 
off of Baja California and southwestern Mexico. Moderate NE winds
generally prevail across the Baja offshore waters, outside of the
finger-like jets of NE gap winds spilling out of the Gulf. Seas
are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja offshore waters except
8 to 9 ft within the strong gap wind areas. East of Cabo
Corrientes light to gentle winds currently prevail to Salina
Cruz, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in prevailing SW swell. 

For the forecast, aside from the storm-force winds developing
across and offshore of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds and seas
will gradually diminish across the Gulf of California, the Baja
California offshore waters, as well as the waters offshore of
southwestern Mexico this evening through Thu. Gale conditions are
expected to end across Tehuantepec Thu evening, with strong winds
continuing there through the weekend. A new cold front moving 
through the eastern Pacific off the coast of California will lead
to moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Punta 
Eugenia Thu night into Fri. Looking ahead, high pressure 
building into the region from the NW this weekend will support 
moderate to locally fresh N to NW winds north of Cabo Corrientes.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Otherwise, moderate S to SW 
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted south of the monsoon 
trough, along about 09N, with gentle to locally moderate winds 
occurring to the north. 

For the forecast, fresh NE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo
will increase to strong this evening through Thu, then pulse to 
strong at night through Fri night, as a strong pressure gradient 
between the Colombian low and an approaching Caribbean cold front
develops across the region. Strong winds and very rough seas 
along the eastern edge of a Tehuantepec storm-force wind event 
will impact the offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed
night through early Fri, with associated NW swell spreading to 
offshore of Papagayo by Thu afternoon. Winds offshore of 
Guatemala will diminish Thu through Thu night with seas slowly 
subsiding Thu night through Fri. Moderate to locally fresh N 
winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this weekend.
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure centers of 1024 to 1025 mb are located on either
side of a weak cold front drifting eastward along 30N and 137W.
The pattern to the south is producing a broad ridge extending 
across much of the waters north of the ITCZ and W of 108W. 
Moderate to fresh trades are occurring south of 22N and west of 
115W, with locally strong NE to E winds occurring between 13N 
and 21W west of 131W. NW swell moving through the regional waters
is combining with seas developed in the area of fresh to strong
winds to produce seas of 10 to 12 ft there. North of 21N, gentle
to locally moderate winds are noted. NW swell is supporting seas
of 8 to 10 ft elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, except 
for the peak of new swell arriving into the far NW waters, where 
recent satellite altimeter data showed seas 10-14 ft. South of 
the ITCZ, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 
ft prevail.

For the forecast, the NW swell will propagate southeastward over
the next several days, with this swell combining with trade wind
swell along and north of the ITCZ. Rough seas are anticipated 
north of 09N and west of 110W this morning, and north of 07N and
west of 118W by Thu morning. Peak seas around 12 ft are expected
in the far western waters between 10N and 20N west of 135W. 
Fresh to strong trades winds will continue from north of the ITCZ
to 20N, west of 120W. New NW swell across the far NW waters this
evening is expected to peak at 10-13 ft this morning before 
slowly subsiding. Farther east, strong NE to E winds and rough to
very rough seas will develop downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
and Gulf of Papagayo Wed night through Thu night, with the 
strongest winds from Tehuantepec extending SW into the waters 
north of 08N and east of 107W. Rough seas of 8 to 12 will extend 
well SW of Tehuantepec and reach from 04N to 14N and E of 110W by
early Fri.

$$
Stripling