000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131449
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will shift across
the Gulf of America Sunday. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front. The pressure gradient between this building high
pressure and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will usher
in the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gale- force gap wind event. Fresh
to strong winds over the Tehuantepec region will increase to gale
force Sunday night. The area of high pressure will shift eastward
and weaken Monday night. This will loosen the pressure gradient
and diminish winds below gale force by Tue morning. Rough seas 
will develop Sun night and continue through Tue night, peaking 
around 13-14 ft (4 m). Conditions will improve the middle of 
next week.

Please read the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml
for more information.
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N92W to 11N117W to 
10N122W. The ITCZ continues from 10N122W to beyond 08N140W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 10N and between 87W and 107W, from 08N to 15N between 112W
and 121W, and from 06N to 11N between 121W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please
see the Special Feature section for more details.

Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient across the
area is supporting light to gentle winds offshore SW Mexico, and 
gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Moderate seas are
west of the Baja California peninsula as well as over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Slight seas prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will develop 
over the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, increasing to gale- force Sun
evening. The gale force winds will continue through early Tue. 
Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will
prevail through the middle of next week. Freshen to locally 
strong northerly winds and rough seas will develop over the 
offshore waters of Baja California Norte by the middle of next 
week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf 
of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 
06N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 06N. Seas 
are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell.

For the forecast, gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon
trough over the next several days, except pulsing fresh to
strong in the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate N winds will pulse in
the Gulf of Panama through early next week. Gentle to moderate
winds will prevail south of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in
mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters
through the weekend and into early next week. Rough seas may
develop in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by Mon due to
the Tehuantepec gale force gap event.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, anchored by a 
1019 mb high centered near 29N133W. The pressure gradient 
between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting
moderate to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough to 
around 20N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds and 
moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters.

For the forecast, a surface trough near 117W will move westward 
over the next few days, supporting active convection along with 
fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. By early next week 
to midweek, high pressure will further build over the northern 
waters, tightening the pressure gradient to support fresh to 
locally strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the 
tradewind belt west of 120W.
 
$$
AL