000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171552
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jan 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N74W to  
03N90W. The ITCZ continues from 03N90W to 06N114W, and from 
05N122W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection can be
found from 05N to 09N between 120W and 131W. A surface trough is
within the ITCZ near 117W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
as high pressure over the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre
Mountains in Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. Currently, 
fresh to strong winds are noted across the Tehuantepec region 
with seas of 8 to 10 ft. High pressure of 1028 mb located N of 
area near 34N135W extends a ridge SE covering the offshore 
forecast waters of Baja California. This system supports light to
gentle winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in Nw swell. In the Gulf of 
California, scatterometer data indicate gentle to moderate S 
winds in the northern part of the Gulf, and moderate to fresh NW 
winds in the southern part of the Gulf and beyond the entrance to
the Gulf to about 22N, including the San Jose del Cabo area. 
Long period NW swell continues to propagate across the majority 
of the Mexican offshore waters with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range.

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore 
waters of Baja California through the upcoming weekend producing 
mainly gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas. As high 
pressure to the W strengthens some on Sun, moderate to locally 
fresh winds are expected. Seas will build to 8 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia by early Mon morning as another NW swell event reaches 
the region. In the Gulf of California, expect moderate to fresh 
NW winds and moderate seas in the central and southern parts of 
the Gulf Sat night through Mon as the pressure gradient tightens 
there. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will 
persist elsewhere through Sat. NW swell will move into the waters
off Baja California Norte Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, a second 
and stronger gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec area 
by Sun night, as a cold front moves across the western Gulf of 
Mexico. Strong high pressure building behind the front may 
support strong gales by mid week over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

The most recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to 
strong NE to E gap winds off of the Gulf of Papagayo. Wave 
heights of 5 to 8 ft are associated with these winds, reaching 
up to 180 nm offshore. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to fresh 
N winds are noted with seas of 3 to 5 ft S of 08N. Light to 
gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell
are elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to 
rough seas will persist in the Papagayo region through Sat, then 
mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail 
through Mon night. A stronger gap wind event is forecast in the 
Papagayo area by Tue night as a strong high pressure builds north
of area. Moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama
today, diminishing to light to gentle breezes over the weekend. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas are expected.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1028 mb high pressure is centered north of area near 34N135W. 
Moderate winds are generally noted across the basin west of 
110W, except for 20 kt winds near a trough along the ITCZ at
117W. NW swell continues to propagate across the majority of the
forecast waters, supporting seas of 6 to 8 ft across most of
waters W of 110W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ with axis 
along 117W. Fresh to locally strong winds are related to this 
trough that is producing scattered moderate convection. 
convection. 

For the forecast, the surface trough along the ITCZ near 117W 
will move westward over the next couple of days. An area of fresh
to strong winds and rough seas will move in tandem with this 
trough due to the pressure gradient between the trough and high 
pressure to the north. In addition, the pressure gradient between
the high pressure and another surface trough approaching from 
the west will bring fresh to strong E to SE winds and building 
seas of 8 to 10 ft across the waters north of 20N and west of 
135W by Sat evening. 

$$
GR