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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 272125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Feb 27 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N78W to 03N90W, where satellite imagery 
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 
01N100W to 02N110W and to 04N127W, where it pauses just to the 
east of a trough. It resumes just to the west of the trough to 
04N130W and to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 
convection is ongoing from the equator to 03S between 116W AND 
120W. Scattered moderate convection exists from the equator to 
04N between 102W AND 110W. Additional scattered moderate 
convection is ongoing from the Equator to 03S between 107W TO 
112W and within 120 NM of the ITCZ between 116W and 130W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A broad jet stream branch to the southeast of a deep upper-level
trough west of Baja California continues to advect tropical 
moisture in the form of overcast mid to upper- level clouds 
northeastward toward Baja California. Isolated showers are 
possible underneath these clouds. The clouds are spreading east- 
northeastward across northern Mexico and Texas. Fresh southwest 
winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Seas with these 
winds are 3-4 ft. Fresh northwest winds are south of Cabo San 
Lucas to near 21N, while moderate or weaker winds prevail in the
rest of the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas over the 
area described are 5-7 ft. Over the remainder of the Mexican 
offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec and the 
central and southern Gulf of California, moderate or weaker winds
and slight to moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast, the fresh southwest winds over the northern 
Gulf of California will diminish by early this evening. Pulsing 
fresh winds are forecast to develop nightly just offshore Cabo 
Corrientes and Cabo San Lucas through Thu. Long-period northwest 
swell is expected to move into the outermost offshore waters 
north of Punta Eugenia on Wed before subsiding Wed night. The 
next Tehuantepec gap wind event will begin early Thu and continue
through late Thu night as strong high pressure builds north of 
the basin supporting strong to near gale-force north winds. 
Conditions will improve Fri.

 ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

The gradient associated to high pressure over the western 
Atlantic is maintaining fresh to strong northeast to east winds
in the Gulf of Papagayo region as highlighted by an ASCAT 
satellite data pass this afternoon. Seas over these waters are 
5-7 ft. Fresh north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of 
Panama, extending southward to 04N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
continue.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 
pulsing strong to near gale-force winds during the nights and 
early mornings for the next few days in the Gulf of Papagayo and 
downstream waters. Seas will build to around 8 ft with the 
strongest winds. Northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse
to fresh to occasionally strong speeds at night through the next
few days. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A deep upper-level trough is over the northwest waters. A rather 
active subtropical jet stream branch to its southeast is located 
from 20N137W, northeastward to 26N125W and to the southern
California/norther Baja California. It is advecting ample broken
to overcast mid to upper-level clouds northeastward toward Baja 
California. These clouds extend southeastward to a line from
25N108W to 19N116W and to near 11N124W. Scattered showers are 
possible within these clouds north of about 22N. The trough 
is supporting a 1012 mb low centered near 30N122W. A trough 
extends from the low to 30N118W to 25N123W and to 21N130W. Fresh
to strong winds are west-northwest of the low north of 25N 
between 126W-131W. Seas with these winds are 10-13 ft as 
confirmed by an altimeter satellite pass this afternoon. Fresh to
locally strong northeast winds are south of 25N west of 128W. 
Seas in the area described area 8-11 ft due to long-period 
northwest to north swell. The remainder of the tropical eastern 
Pacific is under the influence of a 1018 mb high pressure system 
located NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas are present over the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned 1012 mb low is forecast to 
continue to weaken tonight as it moves eastward. The fresh to 
strong winds and seas of 10-13 ft associated with the low will 
diminish tonight into Wed. The fresh to locally strong northeast 
winds south of 25N and west of 128W will diminish in coverage, 
and be at mostly fresh speeds by late Wed night. The 8-11 ft seas
will subside to 8-9 ft in long-period north to northwest swell 
by late Wed. In the long-term, trade winds will increase again to
fresh to locally strong starting late Fri over the western part 
of the area as a cold front begins to advance across the north- 
central waters. A large set of northwest swell will accompany the
front, with the leading edge of 8 ft and greater seas expected 
to reach from near 30N120W to 25N130W to near 20N140W. This set 
of northwest swell is forecast to usher in seas of 12 ft and 
greater to the far northern waters at that same time.

$$
Hogsett/Aguirre