000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130409
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jan 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES....

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event in the
Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by Mon afternoon, 
reaching minimal gale force mainly during the evenings through 
early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas are forecast to 
build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N100W to 07N112W. 
The ITCZ continues from 07N112W to 06N130W to beyond 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 99W and
110W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please,
refer to  the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California
supporting moderate to fresh NW winds, with seas to 5 ft along 
the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds are across the 
offshore waters of Baja California with seas to 9 ft in NW swell 
affecting the waters N of Punta Eugenia. Light to gentle winds 
and moderate seas in NW swell are seen elsewhere across the 
Mexican offshore waters. 

For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore
forecast waters of Baja California producing mainly gentle to 
moderate winds. Long period NW swell generating rough seas to 9 
ft N of Punta Eugenia will subside Mon morning. Pulsing fresh to 
strong NW winds with building seas of 6 to 7 ft are expected in 
the Gulf of California Mon night through Wed as high pressure 
establishes over the Great Basin of the United States. The next 
gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is forecast to begin by 
Mon afternoon, reaching minimal gale force mainly from the 
evenings through early morning hours through Fri morning. Seas 
are forecast to build to 12 or 13 ft with the strongest winds.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as troughing prevails in the west-central Caribbean and 
air funnels through the Cordillera Mountains and over Lake 
Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight
to moderate seas prevail across the Central and South America 
offshore waters.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the
Gulf of Papagayo will reach fresh to strong speeds late on Mon 
and continue through Fri night, potentially increasing to near 
gale- force on Wed as high pressure builds over the NW Caribbean.
Seas with this gap wind event will be mainly moderate, except on
Wed when seas are forecast to be rough with the strongest winds.
Moderate easterly winds from Papagayo will propagate across the 
outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through mid- 
week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Panama through late this week. Gentle to 
locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail 
across the remainder of the offshore forecast waters probably 
through Fri. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong high pressure of 1038 mb located well N of area extends
a ridge across the forecast waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W. 
Due to the tight pressure gradient associated with this system, 
fresh N to NE winds are occurring N of 27N between 123W and 
137W. Seas of 9 to 11 ft are within these winds. In addition, 
moderate to fresh NE to E winds are noted N of the ITCZ to 
about 21N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ W of 105W while light to 
gentle winds are to the south. Long period NW swell dominates the
entire forecast area, reaching as far E as the coasts of 
Colombia and Ecuador. This swell event is generating seas of 8 to
11 ft across most of the waters N of 23N and W of 118W as well 
as the area from 12N to 20N and W of 134W.

For the forecast, a ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ axis
and W of 110W producing moderate to fresh trade winds. The
pressure gradient will remain tight enough to support fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas across the north-central 
waters through tonight. Long period NW swell will continue to 
propagate across the forecast region. Additional pulses of long 
period NW swell are currently reaching the NW corner of the 
forecast area. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to affect the 
waters N of 22N and W of 118W by Mon morning. A surface trough 
will develop W of Baja California Norte on Mon and move westward
through mid-week. The pressure gradient between the trough and
high pressure to the N will support fresh to strong winds on
either side of the trough axis on Tue. 


$$
Ramos