AXPZ20 KNHC 100230
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Dec 10 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N93W to 07N105W. The
ITCZ continues from 07N105W to 08N121W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N
between 118W and 130W, and from 08N to 11N between 130W and 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A 1022 mb high pressure center is centered near 28N129W, with
associated ridge extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands.
The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a
surface trough over Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW
winds over the Gulf of California, with seas in the 5-6 ft
range. This pressure gradient is also supporting moderate to
fresh winds across the offshore waters west of the Baja
California peninsula with 5-6 ft seas. The pressure gradient
between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure
within the equatorial trough is supporting fresh to near gale
force winds in the Tehuantepec region where peak seas are 9 ft.
Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere, along with
seas of 3-4 ft.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail west of the
Baja California peninsula tonight. Fresh NW winds in the central
and southern Gulf of California will diminish this weekend.
Strong to near gale force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
diminish this weekend. A cold front is forecast to reach Baja
California Norte by late Sun, bringing NW swell to the region
through early next week and strong winds to the northern Gulf of
California Sun night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas to 6 ft, prevail
across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate northerly
winds are in the Gulf of Panama with seas to 3 ft. Light to
gentle variable winds are noted elsewhere across the remaining
waters. Outside of the Papagayo region, seas are in the 3-4 ft
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail in the
Papagayo region through early next week. Gentle to moderate winds
will prevail across the offshore waters of Central America,
Colombia, and Ecuador through Mon night. Slight seas can be
expected across most of the offshore waters the next several
days, except in the Papagayo region.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure prevails across the waters north of 15N. A
dissipating stationary front extends from 30N129W to 28N140W.
The pressure gradient between the surface ridge and lower
pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong winds north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W.
Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ
between 110W and 120W. Light to gentle winds are found north of
20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ. Seas are
in the 8-11 ft range in the area of fresh to strong winds, and
5-7 ft elsewhere.
For the forecast, the ridge will continue across the forecast
area over the next 18 hours, supporting a large area of fresh to
strong winds across the west-central waters. Areal coverage of
these winds will decrease this weekend as the ridge weakens. The
stationary front will dissipate early Sat. A cold front will
enter the waters late on Sat. This front will usher in a set of
long period northerly swell associated over northern forecast
waters Sat night into Sun, with seas building to 9-13 ft by Sun