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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Mar 03 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Swell Event: An area of long-period northwest to north
swell with a period of 13-15 seconds covers the waters north of 
25N between 119W-137W. Seas of 11-15 ft are over these waters. 
The swell will gradually subside through Mon morning. Before 
then, seas of 8-12 ft will impact the waters west of Baja 
California north of Cabo San Lazaro into early Mon. Please read 
the latest High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 07N77W to 05N85W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and 
continues to 04N100W to 02N112W and to 02N126W. It resumes at 
02N135W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W-138W. A second ITCZ 
is south of the area extending from 04S90W to 04S105W to 06S113W
to 05S120W to 04S128W. No significant convection is noted.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the 
waters north of 25N and east of 137W. 

High pressure is over the offshore forecast waters of Baja 
California, with the associated gradient producing moderate 
to fresh northwest winds. Seas of 8-12 ft are over these waters,
with the highest of the seas north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to 
gentle winds continue over the central and south parts of the 
Gulf of California, while moderate to fresh southwest to west 
winds are over the northern part of the Gulf. Seas are in the 1-3
ft range across most of the gulf except north of 29N, where 3-4 
ft seas are present. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore 
waters, light to gentle winds are present as were highlighted in 
overnight scatterometer data.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build  
across the area through Mon. The resulting tight gradient will
increase the moderate to fresh northwest to north winds west of 
Baja California to fresh to strong speeds on Mon and Mon night. 
Long-period northwest swell will continue to build seas to a 
peak of 12 ft into north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. 
Seas will subside to 8-11 ft over the offshore waters of Baja 
California through Mon night and to just below 8 ft by midweek. 
midweek. Seas to 8 ft will reach the Revillagigedo Islands into 
Mon morning. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

A recent ASCAT satellite data pass showed fresh northeast winds 
in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 4-6 ft. The ASCAT 
satellite data pass also showed gentle north to northeast winds 
in the Gulf of Panama, with seas of 4-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate 
or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas continue.

For the forecast, winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will 
increase to fresh speeds at night and diminish in the afternoons 
through  Wed. In the Gulf of Panama, gentle to moderate north 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft will continue over the next several 
days. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft will 
prevail over the next several days. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
winds and seas of 3-5 ft due to south to southwest swell are 
expected into early next week.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details 
on a significant swell event that is presently impacting the 
waters north of 25N and east of 137W. 

High pressure is the dominate weather feature over the area, 
north of about 14N and west of 110w. Large long-period swell is 
propagating across the northern forecast waters, with seas of 
11-15 ft north of 25N between 119W-137W. Fresh trade winds, and 
seas of 8-10 ft are over the waters from 05N to 15N W of 120W. 
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present over the 
remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, strong high pressure will continue to build 
across the forecast region. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ 
will support an area of fresh trade winds across the west- 
central waters. The aerial coverage of the trades will increase 
tonight into Mon morning as the pressure gradient tightens. The 
large set of northwest long-period swell will continue to spread 
across the area through Mon, with seas of 8 ft and greater seas 
covering most of the waters north of 05N and west of 110W by Mon 
morning. A cold front is expected to move across the northwest 
waters Tue, followed by fresh to strong northwest winds and seas 
of 8-9 ft. 

$$
Aguirre