000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141600
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Dec 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Building high pressure over 
eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of Mexico continues to 
support strong to near-gale force winds in the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec today. Peak seas near 11 ft are likely occurring in 
the area of strongest winds. High pressure will strengthen 
overnight, prompting a brief period of gale force winds late 
tonight into early Sun. Seas will increase to near 12 ft in 
response to the gale force winds. Winds will diminish slightly 
on Sun, and N winds will then pulse fresh to strong across the 
region through the end of next week. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 05N92W. The ITCZ
then continues from 05N92W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 07N to 10N west of 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information
regarding the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A 1022 mb high centered near 28N123W is building across the 
eastern Pacific, and troughing prevails over the Gulf of 
California. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh 
N to NW winds over central and southern portions of the Gulf of 
California southward to offshore of Jalisco, and moderate N to NE
winds offshore of Baja California. Recent altimeter satellite 
data shows rough seas north of 23N offshore of Baja California, 
with peak seas near 11 ft west of 118W. Farther south offshore 
of southwestern Mexico, light to gentle winds and moderate seas 
prevail. In the Gulf of California, seas of 2 to 4 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, away from gale force winds in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build
modestly this weekend as a series of cold fronts pass to the
north of the region, and troughing prevails over northwestern
Mexico. The tightening pressure gradient between the ridge and
the first cold front northwest of the area will continue to 
support fresh NW winds through the Gulf of California this 
weekend, and fresh winds will develop offshore of Baja this 
evening into Mon. Locally strong winds will be possible at times 
surrounding Punta Eugenia and in the central Gulf of California 
on Sun as the cold front approaches the northern waters. Rough 
seas associated with a long-period NW swell will propagate 
southward this weekend, producing rough seas over 8 ft as far 
south as 20N by this evening, and north of 17N by Sun morning. 
Rough seas will be reinforced across all of the waters offshore 
of Baja early Sun through the beginning of next week as new 
moderate to large NW swell enters the waters. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh to strong N to NE
winds occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as high pressure prevails
over the southeastern United States and low pressure develops in
Colombia. Rough seas of 8 to 9 ft are likely in this region.
Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are noted in the Gulf of
Panama. Elsewhere north of the monsoon trough, away from the
pulsing gap winds, moderate NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft
prevail. Fuego volcano in Guatemala was emitting frequent puffs 
of suspended ash overnight that is moving SW and dispersing as 
it reaches the nearshore coastal waters. Otherwise, south of the 
monsoon trough, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate 
seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted. 

For the forecast, strong NE winds will continue in the Gulf of
Papagayo into Sun morning as high pressure in the southeastern 
United States and the Gulf of Mexico prevails, and low pressure 
persists near Colombia. Winds will then pulse to fresh speeds
each night Sun night through at least the middle of next week.
Moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected to pulse in the
Gulf of Panama each night through the middle of next week. 
Otherwise, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and moderate seas 
will prevail south of the monsoon trough, with gentle winds and 
slight seas occurring north of the trough, away from the gap 
winds. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1022 mb high extends across the northern waters north of 25N
while a cold front moves into the far northern waters, extending
from a low off the coast of central California to 30N133W, with a
stationary front continuing to 29N140W. Moderate to locally 
fresh SW to W winds are occurring north of 29.5N ahead of this 
front. Otherwise, ridging is promoting gentle to moderate E to NE
winds north of 20N, and moderate to fresh trades south of 20N to
the ITCZ. South of the ITCZ, moderate SE winds prevail, with 
locally fresh SE winds noted west of 130W. A complex swell 
pattern, comprised of residual mixed seas south of 20N, new NW 
swell entering the northern waters, and NE seas generated by 
recent gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec mixing with NW
swell are leading to a widespread seas of 8 to 10 ft across much
of the open waters of the Pacific, except for the area south of 
04N and east of 120W where seas are around 6 ft. Locally higher 
seas to 11 ft in mixed NW and E swell are noted between 07N and 
12N west of 134W. Peak seas to 11 ft are also occurring in the 
far northern waters north of 29.5N, generated by the cold front 
north of the area.

For the forecast, the broad area of rough seas from multiple sets
of NW swell, trade wind-generated swell and swell from gap wind
events in Central America will continue to produce seas in 
excess of 8 ft across much of the open waters today, with the 
exception of areas south of 04N and east of 120W. Seas will 
continue to slowly subside E of 100W through tonight. Seas of 11
ft and higher will continue across the western waters of the 
trade wind zone through early next week. New NW swell will 
reinforce rough seas north of 23N today into Sun. A series of 
cold fronts sweeping across the NE Pacific north of the area will
continue to generate NW swell and reinforce seas in excess of 8 
ft for most areas north of the ITCZ through the middle of next 
week. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue from 
north of the ITCZ to 20N, west of 120W through Mon night as an E 
to W ridge resides across the northern area waters. Farther east,
moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue north of the
ITCZ to around 15N between 105W and 120W through the weekend. 

$$
ADAMS