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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 282120
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: 
A recent scatterometer pass provided observations of 30 to 40 kt
N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to near 14N.
Seas are 9 to 13 ft within these winds. Gale conditions are 
forecast to persist tonight and Fri morning, with seas building 
to 10 to 14 ft by tonight. Swell generated by this gap wind event
will spread southwestward, creating 8 to 11 ft seas as far west 
as 100W and as far south as 09N on Fri morning. Both winds and 
seas should begin to diminish late Fri afternoon.

Marine interests in the Tehuantepec area, especially local 
fishermen need to take necessary action to avoid these hazardous
marine conditions.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more detail.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

An equatorial trough extends from a 1011 mb low pressure over 
northern Colombia to 07N100W to the Equator at 120W. The ITCZ is 
south of the Equator and runs westward from 01S110W to 03S125W. 
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 
90W and 120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection 
is from 02N to 06N W of 130W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, 
read the Special Features section for more details.

A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of 
Baja California producing gentle to moderate northerly winds and
seas of 5 to 7 ft based on altimeter data. For the Gulf of 
California, gentle to moderate NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are 
present across central and southern parts of the Gulf, while 
light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft exist at the northern
Gulf. Other than the Gale Warning area in the Tehuantepec region,
light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate 
swells prevail for the southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, gale conditions and rough to very rough seas
will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Fri morning.  
A strong cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of 
Baja California and northern Gulf of California on Sat, bringing 
with it increasing winds and large NW swell. This swell event could
generate very rough seas at the outer offshore waters north of 
Punta Eugenia by Sun morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Abundant moisture in a southerly wind flow is triggering isolated
to scattered showers in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. 
Otherwise, mainly light to gentle SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft 
seas prevail across the offshore waters of Central America,
Colombia and Ecuador. 

For the forecast, starting early on Fri, increasing gap winds 
and rising seas will occur in the Papagayo area, and Gulf of 
Panama as high pressure builds north of the area. Also on Fri, 
swell generated by gap winds at the Tehuantepec region will cause
rough seas across the far southwestern offshore waters of 
Guatemala and El Salvador. Elsewhere, convergent southwesterly 
winds along with abundant moisture will continue to support 
sporadic showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Galapagos 
Islands and in the Costa Rica and West Panama offshore waters 
through at least Fri. Winds and seas could be higher near 
thunderstorms. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
will prevail. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge dominates the northern forecast waters while a weakening
cold front extends from 30N126W to 27N140W. A few showers are
along the frontal boundary. Moderate northerly winds follow the
front with seas of 5 to 7 ft. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and lower pressures near the equatorial trough/ITCZ 
maintains moderate to fresh trades from 06N to 18N W of 130W, 
and from 06N to 14N between 120W and 130W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft 
within these winds based on altimeter data. 

For the forecast, the surface ridge will linger across the waters
west of Baja California as the weakening front moves southeastward
across waters north of 20N while dissipating. Residual NW swell 
will still big enough to keep 7 to 9 ft seas in this area until 
tonight. A strong cold front will enter the Pacific waters west 
of Baja California Norte on Fri, followed by fresh to strong 
northerly winds and a new swell event. Very rough seas are 
forecast to propagate across the waters N of 20N and W to 115W 
during the upcoming weekend. 

$$
GR