AXPZ20 KNHC 120936
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gale Warning: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
low pressure system located about 400 miles SW of Manzanillo,
Mexico has decreased, however environmental conditions still
appear conducive for additional development and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of this week. The low is
forecast to move WNW well offshore the coast of Mexico, and
further development appears unlikely by Sunday when the system is
expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions.
Regardless of development, gale force winds are likely Sat and
Sun for the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N.
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.
A tropical wave has its axis near 96W north of 04N, moving west
at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the
monsoon/itcz section below.
A tropical wave has its axis near 108W from 07N to 20N, moving
west at around 10 kt. There is a 1009 mb low associated with
this wave, which is described in more detail in the Special
Features section above.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N95W to 14N106W to
12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 100W, from 07N to 16N
between 104W and 110W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Refer to the Special Features section for details on low
pressure located several hundred nautical miles off the coast of
southwestern Mexico with a high chance of tropical cyclone
Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or
less are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds
are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters
with seas of 4-6 ft.
For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low
pressure in the special features, mainly gentle to moderate
winds will prevail in the Gulf of California and the Baja
offshores while light to gentle variable winds are forecast for
the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters starting this
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate winds are in the Papagayo region while gentle to
moderate S to SW winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough.
Seas are 5-6 ft across both the Central America and Ecuador
For the forecast, moderate easterly winds in the Papagayo region
will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on Sat. Moderate
winds will resume on Sun and continue through the remainder
forecast period. Mainly moderate S to SW winds will prevail
across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos
Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase
the seas in this region Sun night and will continue to spread
northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the
middle of the week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Refer to the Special Features section above for details on
a low pressure system located several hundred miles SSW of
Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a
tropical depression today or Sat. Regardless of development,
gale force winds are expected SW of the Baja California Sur
offshore waters Sat and Sun.
The remnant low of Howard prevail near 24N126W at 1013 mb. Peak
seas are currently near 8 ft and associated winds are around
15-20 kt. No deep convection is present. The remnants are
forecast to dissipate by Sat morning.
Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters
north of the monsoon trough and W of 118W. Moderate NE to E winds
are N of 20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the
monsoon and 20N where seas are 7-8 ft. Mainly gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 130W. Otherwise,
mainly moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with
seas to 7 ft.
For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no
major changes are expected elsewhere through early next week.