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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 172020

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue May 17 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.


Global models suggest that a broad area of low pressure may form 
across the western Caribbean and then shift across Central 
America late this week into the weekend. This is the 
climatologically favored time of year for these broad low 
pressure areas, called Central American Gyres, to develop. CAG's 
increase SW monsoon flow, and lift the monsoon trough well north 
of its typical position, which advects abundant moisture 
northward. This CAG will bring an increase in convection, 
starting over the southern portions of Central America, which 
will gradually lift northward across portions of Central America 
and across the waters west of Central America as the monsoon 
trough lifts northward. There will be the potential for locally 
heavy rainfall over portions of Central America, especially in 
regions of enhanced orographic lift. Please refer to products 
issued by your local weather service for more information. 


The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N106W to 10N123W to
09N128W. The ITCZ extends from 09N128W to 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N
between 77W and 89W, from 09N to 11N between 89W and 93W, within
270 nm south-southwest of the monsoon trough between 106W and
116W, and from 10N to 12N between 120W and 124W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 94W and
100W, and from 06N to 09N between 116W and 124W.


Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail off the coast of the Baja 
California Norte. Gentle to moderate NW winds are west of Baja 
California Sur. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are
over the Gulf of California. Moderate N to NE winds are offshore
Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the open 
waters off Mexico from Las Tres Marias to Oaxaca. Seas are in the
7-10 ft range in NW swell off Baja California Norte, 6-8 ft off 
the coast of Baja California Sur, and 5-6 ft elsewhere over the 
open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the 
Gulf of California, highest near the entrance and also in the
northern Gulf. Haze is reported at coastal sites from the 
southern Gulf of California southward due to agricultural fires 
over Mexico, while areas of dense fog are evident in afternoon 
visible satellite imagery just offshore Baja California.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh winds will prevail 
west of Baja California through mid-week, diminishing to gentle 
to moderate thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow 
in the Gulf of California will persist through Wed. Fresh to 
locally strong S-SW may develop in the northern Gulf of 
California early Fri through Fri night. Moderate to locally fresh
W-NW winds will develop from near Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo 
Corrientes to offshore Oaxaca Wed night through the end of the 
week. NW swell will prevail across the waters off Baja California
Norte through the week, subsiding late this weekend.


Please see the Special Features section for information on a
potential heavy rainfall event.

Gentle to locally moderate S to SW monsoon flow prevails south 
of the monsoon trough. Light to gentle winds prevail north of 
the monsoon trough, except moderate winds offshore southern 
Nicaragua. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in S to SW swell. 
Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms persist from 
offshore Colombia to offshore eastern Costa Rica. Some haze has 
been reported at coastal sights from Nicaragua northward due to 
nearby agricultural fires.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail south of
the monsoon trough through Wed, increasing to moderate to fresh 
late Wed night through Fri. Light to gentle winds will prevail 
north of the monsoon trough through Fri night, except moderate to
fresh over Papagayo and offshore southern Nicaragua through Wed.
Winds may briefly pulse to fresh to strong over Papagayo and 
offshore southern Nicaragua tonight. A moderate long-period 
southerly swell will linger through mid-week, with a slightly 
larger set of southerly swell arriving by Thu. 


High pressure prevails over the waters north of the ITCZ and
monsoon trough and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and 
within the monsoon trough is maintaining moderate to locally
fresh winds and seas of 6-7 ft north of the ITCZ and monsoon 
trough to 26N and west of 115W, locally fresh to strong north of
27N between 120W and 127W with 7-9 ft seas in fresh northerly
swell. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4-5 ft seas are
north of 26N and west of 129W near the high center. Gentle to 
moderate southerly winds and 5-7 ft seas are noted south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough and west of 106W, except to 8 ft south of
the Equator. East of 110W, light to gentle to winds are noted on
either side of the monsoon trough with 4-7 ft seas, except to 8 
ft south of the Equator and west of 95W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will extend 
from offshore southern California into the waters north of 27N 
between 120W and 130W through mid-week, along with seas in the 
7-10 ft range due to fresh northerly swell. Otherwise, little 
change in conditions are expected across the open waters through
the week with rather tranquil marine conditions anticipated this