AXPZ20 KNHC 210846
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Jan 21 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gale Warning for Pacific waters: An area of low pressure is
located more than 1000 miles east-northeast of Hilo, Hawaii near
23N138W. Gale-force winds prevail over the northern semicircle of
the low through this morning, with seas ranging between 8 to 17
ft. Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to decrease
towards the morning. Environmental conditions appear to be only
marginally favorable for additional development, and they are
expected to become much less favorable on Friday. However, there
is still a low chance for a short-lived subtropical or tropical
cyclone to form during the next day or so as the low moves
northwestward to westward.
Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will continue moving
through the western Gulf of Mexico today bringing gale-force
winds over the Tehuantepec region through Sun night. Seas will
reach as high as 12 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sat. Winds
and seas will diminish over the area through early next week.
For more information on these events, see the latest East
Pacific High Seas Forecast product.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
A surface trough extends from 08N79W to 06N98W. The ITCZ continues
from 06N98W to 07N112W, then resumes W of a trough near 08N120W
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the
trough from 04N-07N between 84W-87W, and from 08N-12N and W of
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please refer to the Special Features section above for details
on the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Surface ridging prevails W of the Baja California, supporting
fresh to strong winds off Baja California and its Gulf towards
the morning. Light to gentle variable winds prevail elsewhere
off Mexico with seas of 3 to 5 ft as indicated by recent
For the forecast, the high pressure building W of the Baja
peninsula will continue to support NW fresh to locally strong
winds across the Gulf of California through this morning. A cold
front will move into the northern Gulf of California and the
waters off Baja California Norte on Sat, then stall and dissipate
over Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California Sun
into Mon. Winds and seas will be enhanced in the vicinity of the
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
High pressure N of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE to
E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 90W.
Seas across that area are in the 5 to 6 ft range. Moderate to
locally fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama region
with seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with
seas in the 3 to 5 ft range.
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse
across the Papagayo region through the middle of next week.
Elsewhere, winds should remain tranquil for the next several
days. Large NW to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will
impact the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night
through Sun night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA
Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific Gale
A large area of fresh to near gale force NE to E winds are N of
20N and W of 128W associated with the gale low pressure area
described above. Seas in the area are raging between 8-17 ft.
Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail
elsewhere across the region.
For the forecast, high pressure building N of the 1006 mb low
pressure will continue to support a large area of fresh to
strong E winds through today. By this afternoon, the low will
move west 140W and weaken substantially. Winds and seas will
subside as the low continues moving W away from the area while