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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120936
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a
low pressure system located about 400 miles SW of Manzanillo, 
Mexico has decreased, however environmental conditions still 
appear conducive for additional development and a tropical 
depression is likely to form by the end of this week. The low is 
forecast to move WNW well offshore the coast of Mexico, and 
further development appears unlikely by Sunday when the system is
expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions. 
Regardless of development, gale force winds are likely Sat and 
Sun for the Baja California Sur offshore waters S of 20N. 
Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 96W north of 04N, moving west 
at around 10 kt. Associated convection is described in the
monsoon/itcz section below.

A tropical wave has its axis near 108W from 07N to 20N, moving 
west at around 10 kt. There is a 1009 mb low associated with 
this wave, which is described in more detail in the Special 
Features section above.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 11N95W to 14N106W to 
12N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 100W, from 07N to 16N 
between 104W and 110W, and from 08N to 14N between 113W and 
132W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on low 
pressure located several hundred nautical miles off the coast of 
southwestern Mexico with a high chance of tropical cyclone 
formation.

Moderate to fresh N-NE winds are offshore the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with seas of 5-6 ft. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 ft or 
less are in the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate NW winds 
are noted along the Baja California peninsula offshore waters  
with seas of 4-6 ft.

For the forecast, aside from the developing area of low 
pressure in the special features, mainly gentle to moderate 
winds will prevail in the Gulf of California and the Baja
offshores while light to gentle variable winds are forecast for
the remainder S and SW Mexican offshore waters starting this
evening.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Moderate winds are in the Papagayo region while gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are 5-6 ft across both the Central America and Ecuador
offshore waters.

For the forecast, moderate easterly winds in the Papagayo region
will diminish to light to gentle speeds early on Sat. Moderate 
winds will resume on Sun and continue through the remainder 
forecast period. Mainly moderate S to SW winds will prevail 
across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos 
Island through the forecast period. Southwest swell will increase
the seas in this region Sun night and will continue to spread 
northward towards the Central America offshore waters through the
middle of the week. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the Special Features section above for details on 
a low pressure system located several hundred miles SSW of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, which has the potential of becoming a
tropical depression today or Sat. Regardless of development, 
gale force winds are expected SW of the Baja California Sur 
offshore waters Sat and Sun. 

The remnant low of Howard prevail near 24N126W at 1013 mb. Peak 
seas are currently near 8 ft and associated winds are around 
15-20 kt. No deep convection is present. The remnants are 
forecast to dissipate by Sat morning.

Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure dominates the waters 
north of the monsoon trough and W of 118W. Moderate NE to E winds
are N of 20N and W of 130W, and moderate to fresh between the
monsoon and 20N where seas are 7-8 ft. Mainly gentle winds are
elsewhere N of the monsoon between 110W and 130W. Otherwise,
mainly moderate S to SW winds are S of the monsoon trough with
seas to 7 ft. 

For the forecast, aside from the possible tropical cyclone, no
major changes are expected elsewhere through early next week. 

$$
Ramos