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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280304
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Oct 28 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave axis is analyzed along 106W north of 05N, moving
W at around 10 kt. No significant deep convection is noted.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to across Costa Rica and
the Papagayo region to 11N90W to 1012 mb low pressure near 11N99W
to 15N104W to 1011 mb low pressure near 11N116W to 10N120W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 06N to 09N between 77W and 84W, from 10N to 13N 
between 97W and 101W, from 09N to 13N between 109W and 120W, and 
from 09N to 11N between 133W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the Gulf of California
south of 30N and west of 110W with moderate to fresh winds
elsewhere in the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 6 ft in the Gulf, highest in
the central part. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds 
prevail elsewhere offshore of Mexico from near Cabo Corrientes 
northward to the Baja California Peninsula. Gentle to moderate 
winds prevail elsewhere. Large NW swell continues to propagate
offshore of Mexico with seas of 8 ft or greater west of 105W,
highest up to 12 ft from the Revillagigedo Islands to the NW-N.
Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail east of 105W.

For the forecast, large NW swell west of 100W will subside 
through Thu. A reinforcing set will arrive west of Baja 
California Thu night, subsiding by the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate northerly winds will prevail west of Baja California, 
except light to gentle Sat through early Sun. Fresh to strong 
winds in the central Gulf of California, and moderate to fresh 
elsewhere in the Gulf of California will diminish Thu night into 
Fri. A fresh to near gale force northerly gap wind event is 
forecast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night through Sat, then 
pulsing to fresh to strong thereafter.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL 
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gentle to moderate S-SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon
trough, with mainly light and variable winds north of the 
monsoon trough, locally moderate in the Papagayo region. Seas 
are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore of Ecuador in moderate 
southerly swell. 

For the forecast, mainly gentle to moderate SW winds will 
persist south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle 
variable winds north of the monsoon trough, pulsing to moderate 
to fresh in the Papagayo region Sat night through Mon night. A 
moderate southerly swell will persist through Sat, subsiding 
thereafter.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Moderate to fresh trades dominate the waters north of the
convergence zone with moderate to locally fresh southerly flow
south of the convergence zone. Large NW-N swell continues to
propagate across the open waters with seas of 8 ft or greater
west of 105W. The peak seas have subsided a bit, now around 14 ft
roughly from 09N to 12N between 115W and 135W. Seas of 6 to 8 ft
in remnant mixed swell prevail east of 105W.

For the forecast, winds will diminish by the end of the week into
the weekend across the majority of the waters as the pressure 
gradient slackens. The next cold front is forecast to slip 
southeast of 30N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong SW winds 
ahead of it. The front will dissipate and associated winds will 
diminish early next week. Meanwhile, the large NW-N swell will 
gradually decay through the end of the week into the weekend. A 
new set of NW swell will breach southeast of 30N140W early Sun 
with the next front, propagating southeast through early next 
week.

$$
Lewitsky