156 
AXPZ20 KNHC 100951
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue Dec 10 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tehuantepec Storm Warning:
A robust gap wind event is anticipated across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec from Wed morning through Fri morning, as a strong
cold front sweeps southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and
southeast Mexico. Winds will quickly reach gale-force Wed morning
and rapidly increase to strong gale-force by Wed afternoon, then
briefly increase further to storm-force late Wed afternoon and
evening. Seas will quickly build to 15 to 20 ft Wed afternoon
through night. Gale-force winds and high seas are expected to
extend to 250 nm from the Tehuantepec coast by Wed evening, and
will persist across these area waters through Thu afternoon
before gradually diminishing to strong N gap winds Thu night
through Sun. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore 
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N84W to 06.5N91W to
06.5N95W. ITCZ continues from 06.5N95W to 07.5N104W to 08N129W 
to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is seen from 12N to 15.5N between 118W and 130W, and from 08.5N
to 15N between 131W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A narrow ridge extends southward from the northeastern Pacific 
across 30N along 125W and then southeastward to the Revillagigedo
Islands. This pattern is maintaining gentle to moderate winds 
across the Baja offshore waters. New NW swell moving into these
area waters overnight is producing seas of 5 to 6 ft across the
Baja waters and 7 to 8 ft N through NW of Isla Guadalupe. Inside
the Gulf of California gentle to moderate winds have developed
across central and south portions tonight, where seas are 1 to 3
ft. Fresh to strong northerly winds have begun to spill into the
far northern Gulf overnight, with seas building 4 to 5 ft. Further
south, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft 
are occurring from the entrance to the Gulf of California to Cabo
Corrientes, becoming N to NE across the Revillagigedo Islands. 
Fresh northerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec and nearby waters. Light to gentle winds and 
4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swell prevails across the rest of the
southern Mexico offshore waters.

For the forecast, a strong cold front will sweep southward 
across eastern Mexico late tonight through Wed. In response to
strong high pressure building southward from the Great Basin 
region of the U.S., strong to near gale-force northerly winds 
and rapidly building seas will spread southward down the length 
of the Gulf of California, from early Tue morning through Wed 
evening. Strong NE gap winds will also spill across the Baja 
Peninsula into the Pacific near and offshore waters. Strongest
winds with gusts to gale-force are expected across the Tiburon
Basin, where winds will funnel between the islands. Farther 
south, strong gales are forecast across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
and area waters Wed late morning through Thu, with a brief period
of storm-force winds this evening, following this same cold 
front moving across the Gulf of Mexico and southern Mexico. See 
the special features section above for more information on this 
gale area.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A strong ridge extending across the Caribbean north of the area 
is maintaining fresh NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo 
region, and extends downstream to 88W. Seas there are at 5 to 7 
ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned strong surface ridge will 
sustain pulses of fresh to locally strong gap winds across the 
Gulf of Papagayo region through this morning, then return again 
Wed night through Sat night. Gentle to moderate winds with 
moderate seas primarily in SW swell will persist elsewhere. 
Strong winds and high seas along the eastern edge of a storm- 
force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the 
offshore waters of southwestern Guatemala Wed night through 
early Fri. Winds and seas there are expected to improve 
significantly by Sat.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough N of the ITCZ along 121W is coupling with 
divergent winds aloft associated with an elongated trough to 
produce scattered moderate convection north of the ITCZ between
118W and 129W. A surface ridge extending southeastward to near 
the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E
trade winds south of 21N to the ITCZ, and west of 110W. Seas 
over these waters are 7 to 10 ft, with the highest seas of 9 to 
10 ft occurring in the trade wind zone of the deep tropics west 
of 130W. Active convection is along occurring in the trade wind
zone from 09N to 15N and W of 128W. North of 20N and west of 
120W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds with 6 to 9 ft seas 
are present. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas
at 5 to 8 ft prevail south of the ITCZ.

For the forecast, new NW swell will continue to propagate into 
the region north of 20N and and west of 125W tonight and Tue, 
supporting 6 to 9 ft combined seas across the NW waters. Seas of
7 to 10 ft are going to persist across the tropical waters south
of 20N and west of 130W through Thu, where fresh to strong trade
winds will persist as a new ridge builds into the western waters
from the NW. Looking ahead, winds and seas south of 20N are 
expected to gradually subside toward the weekend.

Farther east, a long fetch of moderate to fresh E to SE winds
near the aforementioned surface trough along with shorter-period
swell generated from gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
has resulted in 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ into the trough 
along 121W. Winds and seas will diminish east of 120W through 
Wed as the trough and associated weather shifts westward, and the
ridge to the north weakens.

$$
Stripling