481 
AXPZ20 KNHC 250905
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Jan 25 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0905 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong ridge over the
northern Gulf of Mexico continues to force strong to gale-force 
N winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gusts may be reaching 
storm force this morning. These winds are producing rough to 
very rough seas extending as far south as 06N and west to 112W. 
The gale force winds will gradually diminish below gale force in 
intensity and shrink in areal extent Sat through Sun morning 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, briefly pulsing again to minimal 
gale force Sun night. Rough to very rough seas will also linger 
in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream into Mon.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the 
National Hurricane Center at the website: 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml, for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of NW Colombia near 
06N77W to 04N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N95W to 08N120W and 
to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 
from 04N to 16N and west of 110W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information about the 
Gale Warning for the Tehuantepec Region.

A strong high pressure centered well northwest of the area
extends weakly to the Revillagigedo Islands. The weak pressure
gradient result in light to gentle variable winds and slight to
moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California.
Winds have diminished in the Gulf of California and recent data
indicate that light to gentle winds and slight seas are
prevalent. 

In the remainder of the offshore waters of Mexico, excluding the
Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas 
are prevalent.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across the northern Gulf
of California over the next few days and winds will strengthen 
to fresh to strong across the northern waters today into Sun. By
Sun afternoon, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the
early part of next week over the Gulf of Baja California. Northerly
swell will arrive on Sun to the far NW waters, reaching 10 ft, 
before subsiding on Mon. Meanwhile, strong to gale-force N winds
will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec until early next week, 
along with rough to very rough seas.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A 1032 mb high pressure system centered in the NE Gulf of Mexico
forces fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the Gulf
of Papagayo region, spreading downstream to 93W. Gusts may reach
gale force today and tonight. Moderate to locally strong NE 
winds are also noted off the coasts of Nicaragua, Honduras, El 
Salvador and Guatemala. Seas in the areas described are 6-10 ft.
Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5
ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a strong ridge positioned north of the area 
will continue to support fresh to locally near gale-force 
easterly winds and occasional rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo 
through the forecast period. Seas generated by the gale force 
winds in the Tehuantepec area will propagate across the offshore 
waters of Guatemala periodically through late Sun, with seas 
forecast to peak around 12 ft in northerly swell today. Moderate
to fresh to locally strong winds will also prevail through the 
weekend over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A strong subtropical ridge positioned well north of the area
extends southward into the tropical eastern Pacific. The weak
pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds
and moderate seas west of 130W. This was confirmed by a recent 
scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate to locally fresh easterly 
breezes and moderate seas are found north of the ITCZ to 17N and 
west of 105W. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NE-E winds and moderate
to rough seas are found east of 105W and north of the ITCZ due 
to the winds and swell spreading downstream from the gap wind 
events occurring in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, fresh to strong and rough seas will persist
through Sun night in the eastern waters as additional swell 
propagates westward from prolonged gap wind events farther east. 
Farther west, trade winds will diminish somewhat as the high 
pressure to the north weakens, and seas will gradually subside 
from east to west through the weekend. Farther north, the high 
pressure will weaken due to a cold front expected to move through
the waters north of 25N and east of 125W late today through Mon.
Northerly swell of 8 to 11 ft will follow the front, and cover 
the region north of 25N by Sun night. Seas is this region will 
subside below 8 ft Mon night. 

$$
Delgado