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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211532
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Feb 21 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Minimal gale force winds
continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. The gale- 
winds will diminish today as high pressure N of the area weakens
and moves farther from the area. Conditions will gradually
improve over the next day, with winds of 20 kt or less, and seas
less than 8 ft in the area by early Thu. 

Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
high pressure over the SE United States and the eastern Pacific 
equatorial trough is supporting fresh to strong winds over and
downstream the Gulf, reaching near- gale force closer to the
Gulf. Winds will briefly pulse to minimal gale force in the 
Gulf tomorrow morning with the added component of nocturnal 
drainage flow. Seas are peaking near 10 ft. Winds in the 
Papagayo region will briefly diminish Fri before strengthening 
again over the weekend.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts 
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more 
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The equatorial trough extends from 07N78W to 05N81W to
04N102W. The ITCZ continues from 04N102W to 03N121W to beyond 
02S140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is 
noted from 00N to 08N between 83W and 122W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak pressure gradient
prevails across the forecast waters. This loose gradient is 
supporting gentle to locally moderate winds off the Baja 
California peninsula southward to the Revillagigedo Islands.
Fresh to locally strong winds are over the northern Gulf of
California with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere in
the Gulf. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere over the open
waters off Mexico. Long period NW swell is bringing seas of 8-10
ft to the waters off the Baja California peninsula southward to
the Revillagigedo Island. Seas of 6-7 ft are over the waters off
SW Mexico. Seas in the northern Gulf of California are in the 4-5
ft range, with seas of 3 ft or less elsewhere in the Gulf. 

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales, 
winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next 
several days. Large, long-period WNW swell will impact the 
waters west of Baja California to the Revillagigedo Islands 
through tonight. Looking ahead, the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap 
wind event should begin Fri night, with winds currently forecast 
to peak at near-gale force Fri night through Sat night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Please read the Special Features section above for information 
about a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Papagayo.

Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of
Papagayo, with locally near gale winds closer to the Gulf. Seas 
in this area are in the 8-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds 
are over and downstream the Gulf of Panama with seas of 5-6 ft. N
of Papagayo, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Elsewhere, light 
to gentle winds prevail. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range well 
offshore Guatemala and El Salvador due to NW swell from the 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo gales, fresh to
occasionally strong N to NE winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
Panama until Thu night. Winds will diminish over the Gulf of 
Panama Fri into Sat, then increase once again Sat night into Sun.
Large NW swell generated from a gale- force gap wind event in 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the outer waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador today before diminishing tonight. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A surface trough extends from 30N119W to 25N119W. A ridge extends
from 1026 mb high pressure centered NE of Hawaii to near 25N120W.
The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the
surface trough is supporting moderate winds in the vicinity of
the trough. The pressure gradient between the area of high 
pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is 
supporting fresh to locally strong trades north of the ITCZ to
near 18N and west of 130W. Moderate to fresh trades are N of the
ITCZ to near 18N between 110W and 130W. Light to gentle winds 
prevail elsewhere. Subsiding NW swell continues across the
waters. Seas of 8-10 ft cover much of the waters W of 100W. 

For the forecast, the fresh tradewinds N of the ITCZ will
continue through early Fri before diminishing. Areal coverage of
seas greater than 8 ft will gradually start to decrease late 
today as the NW swell decays. On Fri into the weekend, an 
extratropical low will move slowly eastward along the 30N border,
bringing strong to near- gale N winds in its W semicircle. Also 
on Fri into the weekend, a new set of very large NW swell 
associated with the extratropical low will propagate into the NW 
waters. 

$$
AL