AXPZ20 KNHC 252147
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Depression Rick is centered inland near 20.0N 102.5W at
25/2100 UTC moving N at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with
gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the
Mexican coast N of 17N between 101W and 103W. Additional
weakening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Rick is
expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by
tonight or Tuesday morning.
Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern
coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated
storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican
states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy
rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP2.shtml for
A tropical wave axis is along 93W N of 01N into Mexico, moving W
at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 13N95W. The monsoon trough continues southwest of TD
Rick near 13N109W to a 1012 mb low near 10N113W to another 1012
mb low near 11N122W to a third 1012 mb low near 09N131W to the
final 1012 mb low near 11N136W to 10N140W. In addition to the
convection associated with Tropical Depression Rick described in
the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 13N and E of 92W in addition to 07N to 12N
between 110W to 140W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Please see the Special Features section for more details on
Tropical Depression Rick.
Scatterometer satellite data indicates light to gentle winds
prevail across most of the Mexican offshore waters. Fresh winds
still continue off of the Michoacan and western Guerrero
coastline as TD Rick moves farther inland. Additionally, fresh
southerly winds are noted in the northern Gulf of California
ahead of an incoming cold front. Seas near 8 ft still continue
near Socorro Island along with the offshore waters along
Michoacan and Guerrero. The NW swell is mixing with shorter-
period swell generated by Rick over Mexican offshore waters south
of Cabo Corrientes. A new round of NW swell is beginning to
approach the far western offshore waters of Baja California.
For the forecast, the new NW swell continue to move across the Baja
California offshores tonight and spread southward to Baja
California Sur and Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue
night may reach 15 ft off Baja California, before decaying by Wed
into Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast tonight in the
northern Gulf of California ahead of a cold front. Behind the
front, fresh to strong winds could develop on Wed in the central
Gulf of California. Northerly fresh to strong winds could also
develop off Baja California near Punta Eugenia on Tue and Tue
night. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western
Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf
of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into late week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL
AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon
trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft. Showers continue south of the Gulf of Panama with
thunderstorms along the coast of Costa Rica, Panama, and western
Colombia. Some thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters
south of El Salvador.
Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central
American offshore waters through the rest of the week. Seas will
range from 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A cold front stretches across the Pacific waters from 30N127W to
26N140W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are occurring ahead of
the front with gentle to moderate N to NW winds behind the front.
Some showers are noted along the boundary. Meanwhile, a large
area of long period NW swell is moving across the area with seas
of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. This area of swell is expected
to subside below 8 ft through tonight. Another reinforcing group
of large NW swell is pushing southward in the NW basin, N of 19N
and W of 119W with seas peaking around 18 ft near 29N128W. Seas
will continue to be 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W through Tue