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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 260320

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.


The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 09N to 18N, 
moving westward around 5 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure center 
associated with this wave is located near 14.5N123W. A cluster of
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm 
in the NE semicircle of the low. 


The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N73W to 08N88W to low 
pressure near 14.5N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N124W to 
10N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted from 06N-10N east of 84W, from 05N-10N 
between 89W and 94W, and from 08N-11N west of 133W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection noted from 07N-11N between 109W and
115W, and from 12N-19N between 110W and 118W. 


Gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California and the 
waters west of the Baja California peninsula will persist through
Thu afternoon as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the
regional waters. Thu night a decaying cold front will begin to 
usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf 
of California, spreading southward through Fri night and then
persisting through Mon evening. Seas are expected to build to 
5-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon.

Large NW swell will begin to invade the Baja California Norte 
waters tonight, spreading across the Baja Sur waters Thu evening 
through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to build near 13 
ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte.

Fresh to strong north winds are expected to return across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N late tonight through Fri 
morning, with moderate to fresh thereafter through Sun. Looking 
ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind 
event across Tehuantepec beginning Sun late afternoon, possibly 
reaching strong gale force by late Mon night.


Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the
early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect 
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate  
cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off 
Ecuador and Colombia Thu evening and invade the waters of Central
America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, subsiding by the end of the
weekend into early next week. 


A broad ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 39N137W 
southeastward to 30N122W to 20N110W. The pressure gradient 
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough 
and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to 
fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of 
120W, with winds fresh to strong from 10N to 14N and W of 136W. 
Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area. These conditions 
will change little through this evening.

Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas 
to 10 ft. A small area of fresh to strong winds is embedded in
this swell area, just ahead of a cold front just north of 30N
that will sink into the area tonight and Thu. The NW swell will 
continue to spread south-southeastward across the northern 
waters tonight with seas peak at 10-15 ft over the northern 
waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will 
slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of 
NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of 
30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell 
moving southeast into the area early next week.