AXPZ20 KNHC 260320
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Nov 26 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
The axis of a tropical wave is near 123W, from 09N to 18N,
moving westward around 5 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure center
associated with this wave is located near 14.5N123W. A cluster of
scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm
in the NE semicircle of the low.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N73W to 08N88W to low
pressure near 14.5N123W. The ITCZ axis extends from 10N124W to
10N136W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 06N-10N east of 84W, from 05N-10N
between 89W and 94W, and from 08N-11N west of 133W. Scattered
moderate to strong convection noted from 07N-11N between 109W and
115W, and from 12N-19N between 110W and 118W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Gentle to moderate NW winds over the Gulf of California and the
waters west of the Baja California peninsula will persist through
Thu afternoon as a broad high pressure ridge prevails across the
regional waters. Thu night a decaying cold front will begin to
usher in fresh to locally strong NW winds over the northern Gulf
of California, spreading southward through Fri night and then
persisting through Mon evening. Seas are expected to build to
5-8 ft inside the Gulf of California Fri through early Mon.
Large NW swell will begin to invade the Baja California Norte
waters tonight, spreading across the Baja Sur waters Thu evening
through Sat evening. Peak seas are anticipated to build near 13
ft Thu night west of Baja California Norte.
Fresh to strong north winds are expected to return across the
Gulf of Tehuantepec north of 14.5N late tonight through Fri
morning, with moderate to fresh thereafter through Sun. Looking
ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of
Mexico this weekend and produce another gale force gap wind
event across Tehuantepec beginning Sun late afternoon, possibly
reaching strong gale force by late Mon night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh each night into the
early morning hours over the Papagayo region. Otherwise expect
moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds south of 10N. Moderate
cross equatorial swell is expected to move into the waters off
Ecuador and Colombia Thu evening and invade the waters of Central
America Fri, building seas to 6-7 ft, subsiding by the end of the
weekend into early next week.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from a 1033 mb high near 39N137W
southeastward to 30N122W to 20N110W. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough
and in the vicinity of the ITCZ is producing mainly moderate to
fresh NE trades across the area waters north of 10N and west of
120W, with winds fresh to strong from 10N to 14N and W of 136W.
Seas are generally 7-10 ft across this area. These conditions
will change little through this evening.
Fresh NW swell has propagated into the far NW waters, with seas
to 10 ft. A small area of fresh to strong winds is embedded in
this swell area, just ahead of a cold front just north of 30N
that will sink into the area tonight and Thu. The NW swell will
continue to spread south-southeastward across the northern
waters tonight with seas peak at 10-15 ft over the northern
waters N of 20N and E of 132W early Thu into Fri. Seas will
slowly decay into the weekend. Looking ahead, another pulse of
NW swell with seas up to 8 ft is forecast to push southeast of
30N140W Sat night through Sun night, with larger NW swell
moving southeast into the area early next week.