AXPZ20 KNHC 302109
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Nov 30 2023
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near
09N84W to low pressure near 08.5N114W 1008 mb to 09N125W. The
ITCZ continues from 09N125W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N
between 87W and 107W, and around the low pressure from 05N to
12N between 108W and 122W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Moderate to fresh N-NW winds are noted N of 27N and W of Isla
Guadalupe, while light winds prevail between 23N and 27N. Seas to
9 ft are noted N of 28N between 120W and 125W in NW swell.
Another area of moderate to fresh winds prevail S of 23N. Seas
are 4 to 6 ft in fading NW swell across the Baja waters. Light to
gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California with seas to 4
ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the discussion
waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec, where seas are in
the 4-6 ft range. Pressure gradient from the high pressure
across the Gulf of Mexico continues to weaken. Light to gentle
winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec but diminishing in
coverage with seas to 5 ft.
For the forecast, surface ridging will prevail across the Baja
California offshore waters through the next few days, supporting
moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja offshore waters
through Fri. NW swell across the Baja California northern will
reach as far south as 25N, bringing seas between 8 to 10 ft
through early Sat. This swell will linger across the far northern
Baja California offshore waters through the weekend and into
early next week.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to strong E-NE gap winds are over the Papagayo region and
extends to near 92W, and moderate offshore winds extending
across the waters offshore of northern Nicaragua and the Gulf of
Fonseca. Seas across this area are 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle
offshore winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Light
to gentle SW winds are elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Seas of
4-7 ft prevail across the area waters in mixed swell.
For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected across
and well downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo region through
tonight, pulsing to strong speeds at night. Moderate W to NW
swell across the regional waters will continue tonight. Moderate
southerly swell will approach the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador
offshore waters late weekend and into early next week.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure NW of the area waters extends across waters N of
18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and the monsoon trough and ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong
winds N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to 25N and W of 120W. Gentle
to moderate winds are noted N of 25N. A low pres along the
monsoon trough near 09N114W is supporting fresh to strong winds
from 05N to 11N between 112W and 115W, with seas to 9 ft. Light
to gentle winds are N of 25N, while gentle to moderate winds are
noted S of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. NW swell dominates the
discussion waters W of 120W, with seas in the 8-9 ft range in
fading NW swell. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted elsewhere.
For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten across the
area supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds S of 25N through
the weekend. The low pres along the monsoon trough will dissipate
by Fri. NW swell across the waters from 12N and 23N will
continue to move westward across the waters through the next few
days while expanding in area. The NW swell impacting waters N of
28N between 120W and 125W will shift eastward towards the Baja
California waters over the next few days, lingering through the
weekend. Swell impacting waters S of 10N will subside by the