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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 300400

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Nov 30 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 
a surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec associated with the monsoon trough
continue to support N to NE gale-force winds across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec region tonight. Peak seas are estimated at 13 ft. 
Winds are forecast to diminish below gale-force Tue morning then
strong gap winds will remain through the weekend. Please see the
latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at website:// for 
more information.


The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia near 09N74W to 
09N84W to 06N94W to low pres 1012 mb near 08N107W to 08N112W. 
The ITCZ continues from 08N112W to 08N130W to beyond 11N140W.
Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is N of 04N E of 
82W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 11N between
103W and 111W, and from 06N to 10N between 115W and 121W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details on an
ongoing gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gale-force N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region and are forecast to continue through Tue morning. Strong 
gap winds will then continue across this region Tue through the
weekend, with winds becoming strongest at night. 

Moderate to locally fresh NW winds prevail across the southern Gulf
of California to the offshore waters of Jalisco with seas 3 to 4
ft. Similar wind conditions are along the Baja California
offshore waters with seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. Conditions
will prevail through Tue for both regions. Moderate to locally 
fresh NW winds will resume at the entrance of the Gulf, and the 
southern half of the Gulf of California Wed night and along the
Baja offshores on Thu, continuing through Sat night. Otherwise, 
light to gentle variable winds will dominate the remainder 
offshore waters through the forecast period.


Fresh to strong NE winds in the Papagayo region will continue 
through Sat with seas building up to 8 ft Tue and Wed. Moderate
to locally S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough or
roughly S of 06N through the weekend with seas to 5 ft in SW 
swell. Otherwise, moderate N to NE winds are forecast for the 
Gulf of Panama through Tue. Heavy showers and thunderstorms 
ongoing across the Colombia and Panama offshore waters are 
forecast to prevail through at least Wed. 


A 1026 mb center of high pressure N of the area extends a ridge 
southward to near 18N. The pressure gradient between the high 
pressure and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is 
supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades north of the ITCZ to 
near 24N and west of about 120W. Seas are 5-8 ft across this 
region. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are N of 24N while
mainly moderate SE winds are S of the ITCZ, except for fresh
winds and seas to 8 ft W of 134W.

NW swell to 8 ft is across the far NW forecast waters and will 
maintain seas near 8 ft across these NW waters through Tue night.
Moderate to fresh winds and seas to 8 ft will continue mainly 
from 16N to 25N and W of 130W through the middle of the week as 
the ridge remains nearly stationary.