AXPZ20 KNHC 120849
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Sun Jul 12 2020
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.7N 123.3W at 12/0900
UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. A weakening trend is
forecast to continue while Cristina tracks to the WNW, and
Cristina is likely to become a tropical depression by Sunday
night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
A low pressure area and associated tropical wave located a
couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are producing
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 08N to 19N
between 96W and 106W. Although upper- level winds are currently
only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical
cyclone, environmental conditions are likely to become more
favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or
three days while the system moves quickly west- northwestward to
westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently
a medium of tropical cyclone development in association with this
wave over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development
within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.
The axis of tropical wave is near 87W, from N of 3N to Nicaragua,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted over forecast waters from 02N to 11N between
78W and 88W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, from 02N to 20N,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 11N between 108W and 117W.
The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 01N to 19N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N
between 130W and 140W.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 10N95W to
16N113W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N124W to 12N140W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special
features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from
01N to 10N between 89W and 96W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
High pressure building west of the Baja California peninsula will
prevail through the middle of this week. This will support
gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California
peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of
California today, but winds will freshen over the Gulf of
California for the first half of the week as a low pressure
trough deepens over the area.
Fresh to locally strong offshore winds will occur offshore from
Acapulco to Manzanillo through early Mon as low pressure
develops and then moves west of the area.
A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off southern Mexico
for the latter half of the week.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo
region into mid-week. Some locally strong winds may pulse during
the overnight hours.
Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of
10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this
A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off the northern
parts of Central America Wed or Thu.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Cristina.
Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern
waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and
seas of 4 to 6 ft.
Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the
system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening
tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will
tighten through early this week. This will result in a large
area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas.
Low pressure is likely to track W roughly along 15N during the
early to middle portions of the week.