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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120849
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0900 UTC Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 20.7N 123.3W at 12/0900
UTC moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50
kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
120 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. A weakening trend is 
forecast to continue while Cristina tracks to the WNW, and
Cristina is likely to become a tropical depression by Sunday 
night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ 
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for 
more details.

A low pressure area and associated tropical wave located a 
couple of hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico, are producing
numerous moderate to scattered strong convection from 08N to 19N
between 96W and 106W. Although upper- level winds are currently 
only marginally conducive for the development of a tropical 
cyclone, environmental conditions are likely to become more 
favorable for the formation of a tropical depression in two or 
three days while the system moves quickly west- northwestward to 
westward, well south of the coast of Mexico. There is currently 
a medium of tropical cyclone development in association with this
wave over the next 2 days, and a high probability of development
within the next 5 days. Please refer to the latest Eastern North
Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of tropical wave is near 87W, from N of 3N to Nicaragua,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is noted over forecast waters from 02N to 11N between 
78W and 88W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 114W, from 02N to 20N, 
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 03N to 11N between 108W and 117W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 139W from 01N to 19N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N 
between 130W and 140W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon trough extends from near 09N79W to 10N95W to 
16N113W. It then resumes W of Cristina near 13N124W to 12N140W.
Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special 
features sections, scattered moderate convection is noted from 
01N to 10N between 89W and 96W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

 High pressure building west of the Baja California peninsula will
prevail through the middle of this week. This will support 
gentle to moderate NW winds west of the Baja California 
peninsula. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the Gulf of 
California today, but winds will freshen over the Gulf of 
California for the first half of the week as a low pressure
trough deepens over the area.

Fresh to locally strong offshore winds will occur offshore from
Acapulco to Manzanillo through early Mon as low pressure 
develops and then moves west of the area.

A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off southern Mexico
for the latter half of the week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo 
region into mid-week. Some locally strong winds may pulse during
the overnight hours.

Moderate to fresh SW winds will prevail through mid-week S of 
10N. Seas will be mainly 4 to 7 ft in S-SW swell during this 
period.

A strong tropical wave may impact the waters off the northern
parts of Central America Wed or Thu.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on 
Tropical Storm Cristina. 

Outside of Cristina, a surface ridge dominates the northern 
waters, with moderate to fresh N-NE winds across the area, and 
seas of 4 to 6 ft.

Cristina will continue to weaken the next couple of days as the 
system moves W-NW south of the ridge. Despite the weakening 
tropical system, the pressure gradient over the NW waters will 
tighten through early this week. This will result in a large 
area of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and building seas.

Low pressure is likely to track W roughly along 15N during the 
early to middle portions of the week.

$$
KONARIK