000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080327
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jun 8 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A weak tropical wave is analyzed near 81W, across western Panama
north of 04N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is evident from 06N to 08N between 83W and 87W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N125W. The ITCZ
continues from 08N125W to 09N135W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 92W and
98W. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure continues to dominates the waters west of Baja 
California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds, with the
exception of fresh winds around Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6-7 ft 
in mixed S and NW swell. Gentle breezes prevail elsewhere with 3
to 5 ft seas in mixed over open waters. Areas of smoke due to
agricultural fires are possible over coastal waters from 
Michoacan to Jalisco.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in place over the 
waters W of Baja California through the rest of the week 
supporting gentle to moderate NW winds and occasionally fresh 
winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, especially at 
night. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are expected near Cabo 
San Lucas at night through the next few nights. Gentle to 
moderate W to NW winds across the SW Mexican offshore waters will
change little through the period. Looking ahead, fresh to strong
S to SW winds may return to the northern Gulf of California this
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle SW to W winds and 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW 
swell are over the offshore forecast waters of Central America, 
Colombia and Ecuador south of 10N. Gentle SW breezes and 
combined seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell are evident north of 10N.

For the forecast, a rather weak pressure gradient across the 
forecast waters will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the 
offshore waters through the forecast period. Moderate, long-
period SW swell will persist mainly south of 10N into early next 
week. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms can be expected 
off southern Central America and Colombia as well through the 
period due to enhanced moisture.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A ridge anchored by 1020 mb high pressure near 30N140W dominates
the forecast waters north of 15N and west of 110W. This pattern
is supporting gentle to moderate mostly NW to N winds west of
110W. Moderate SW flow is evident east of 110W. Earlier 
altimeter data showed combined seas of 6 to 8 ft north of 20N, 
likely with northerly swell, slightly higher than wave model 
initializations indicate. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere.


For the forecast, a cold front will move eastward across the
waters north of 20N through late Sat, and dissipate as it nears
Baja California. High pressure building in the wake of the front
may allow trade wind flow and slightly higher seas from 08N to
15N west fo 130W through late Sat. Looking ahead, these fresh NW
winds may expand northward west of 130W into early next week. 

$$ 
Christensen