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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 021545

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Jun 2 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 13N88W to 09N111W. The ITCZ 
continues from 09N111W to 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 03N to 12N between 100W and 136W.


Moderate to fresh NW winds are occurring elsewhere within 150 nm
of the west coast of Baja California Sur with seas of 5 to 6 ft.
Moderate NW winds prevail offshore Baja California Norte, where 
seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Moderate to locally fresh gap 
winds prevail across the Gulf of California, with seas of 2 to 4 
ft. Farther east, from Cabo Corrientes to the Guatemala border, 
winds are gentle to locally moderate from the WNW, with seas of 
5-7 ft in S to SW swell.

For the forecast, pulses of fresh to strong winds from the 
evening through early morning hours are expected across the 
waters west of the Baja Peninsula and off Cabo San Lucas into  
next week. Fresh SW to W gap winds in the Gulf of California will
pulse on Sun night through Tue night. Gentle to moderate winds 
will prevail elsewhere. N swell off Baja California Norte will 
subside by tonight. Another N swell will move through the Baja 
offshore waters on Mon.


Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the entire area. Seas 
are 5-7 ft in long period S to SW swell, except 7 to 8 ft near 
the Galapagos Islands. Earlier showers and thunderstorms offshore
Central America have decreased in coverage and intensity over 
the past 6 hours.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate SW winds are expected S of 
the monsoon trough into early next week. Moderate S to SW cross 
equatorial swell will dominate regional seas through Sat before 
new large long-period SW swell builds into the regional waters 
Sat night through Mon, then decaying thereafter.


A surface high pressure ridge extends from a 1025 mb high 
pressure near 35N134W to 18N110W. The pressure gradient between 
the high pressure and lower pressure along the monsoon trough and
ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE winds N of the ITCZ to 
near 14N and W of 115W. Seas to 9 ft prevail with these winds. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with seas of 4-6 
ft. SW swell prevails S of 08N between 97W-120W supporting seas
to 9 ft in this area.

For the forecast, high pressure ridge will remain in place 
through today, before weakening and shifting gradually eastward 
through the weekend. The current S to SW swell over the waters E 
of 120W and S of 10N will continue to subside through this 
morning. A new pulse of large cross equatorial SW swell will 
reach the eastern tropical Pacific Sat and build through Sun 
night, building seas to 8-9 ft to the east of 120W and south of 
12N. Looking ahead, N swell is forecast to push S of 30N Mon 
through Tue building seas to 8-10 ft N of 25N between 120W and