AXPZ20 KNHC 050917
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N98W. The ITCZ
continues from 06N98W to 11N116W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N
between 116W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 09N to 13N between 111W and 123W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Recent scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds in the
Tehuantepec region are 30 kt. As a result, the gale warning has
been allowed to expire at 0600 UTC. Fresh to strong northerly
winds continue to blow across the area and downwind to near
13N96W. Seas are likely 8-12 ft within these winds. Seas generated
by this gap wind event are spreading well away from the Tehuantepec
area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far SW as 10N110W.
Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters
of Baja California under the influence of a ridge with seas of
4-6 ft in NW swell, reaching 7 ft near 30N120W. Gentle to moderate
NW winds are noted per scatterometer data in the central and
southern Gulf of California with seas of 2-4 ft. Mainly light and
variable winds with seas less than 2 ft dominate the northern
part of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the remaining of the Mexican
offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to
gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily in NW swell are noted.
For the forecast, a weak frontal boundary will continue to approach
the Baja California Norte waters today while dissipating. Seas
of 6-8 ft in the wake of the front will propagate across the waters
N of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding tonight into Tue. Expect
fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California
Wed night into Thu as high pressure builds across the Great Basin.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Wed through Fri night.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are observed across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 89W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough
along 07N, with seas of 5-7 ft based on an altimeter pass. Light
to gentle S to SW winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted to the S of the
trough. Light to gentle winds prevail between Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft.
For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region mainly at night through mid-week. Seas
are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in
the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will
prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia,
and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the
offshore waters through midweek, except in the Papagayo region.
NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will
continue to move across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador today while subsiding.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A stationary front extends from 30N120W to 23N140W. Gentle to
moderate NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft in NW swell follow the
front. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters
mainly N of 16N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh
to locally strong NE to E winds roughly from 12N to 17N between
115W and 121W according to a recent ASCAT pass.
For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate today.
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front.
This will bring moderate to fresh trades across the west-central
waters. By Tue evening, expect an increase in winds and seas
across the west-central waters as high pressure strengthens N of
the forecast region. These marine conditions are expected to
persist beyond Thu. Currently, model guidance suggests fresh to
strong trade winds and seas building to 9 or 10 ft. A surface
trough, within the ITCZ, is forecast to move westward between
120W and 130W over the next 48-72 hours.