000
AXPZ20 KNHC 041559
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Wed Oct 4 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lidia is centered near 14.8N 108.6W at 04/1500 
UTC, or about 350 nm SW of Manzanillo, Mexico, moving north-
northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 
mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. 
Peak seas are currently around 13 ft. Numerous moderate scattered
strong convection is noted within 180 nm in the NW semicircle and
60 nm SE semicircle. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is noted elsewhere from 12.5N to 19N between 104W and
112W. A continued north-northwest motion with a reduction in 
forward speed is forecast during the next day or so. Beginning 
late Thursday, a much slower westward motion is expected. Some 
slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days. Please 
read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Lidia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 14N102W, then continues
W of T.S. Lidia from 13N113W to 1007 mb low pres near 12N124W to
10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 04N to 12N between 77W and 91W, from 07N to 16.5N between
91W and 102W, and from 04N to 13N between 112W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, scattered moderate to strong convection is noted over
the nearshore and offshore Mexico waters from Mazatlan, Sinaloa
southward to offshore Manzanillo and offshore the Mexican state
of Michoacan. Similar heavy showers and thunderstorms are over
the offshore waters between Acapulco and Puerto Angel.

Outside of T.S. Lidia, surface ridging prevails across the 
offshore waters of Mexico, along with winds of moderate or 
weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell across the waters W of 110W 
including offshore Baja California, and 4-5 ft in mixed swell 
elsewhere in the open waters. The exception is near Lidia, where
seas over 6 ft are occurring south of 16.5N and west of 107W. In
the northern Gulf of California, seas are 1-2 ft, and 2-4 ft in 
the southern Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu morning,
16N111W Fri morning, 16N113W Sat morning, 16N114W Sun morning,
and near 16N115W Mon morning. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 
60 kt tropical storm Sat morning through Mon morning. Elsewhere, 
fresh to strong winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri 
night through Sun morning. Winds will be moderate or weaker 
elsewhere through Sat along with mainly moderate seas. Looking 
ahead, a large area of showers and thunderstorms located well 
south of the coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of 
low pres. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive 
for gradual development during the next several days, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next 
week while the disturbance moves slowly WNW. This system could be
located to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by late in the 
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Mainly moderate SW winds are occurring to the south of the 
monsoon trough, locally fresh from 07N to 10N, west of 88W. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft in S 
swell across the offshore waters, except for 6 to 8 ft near the
Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
are occurring well offshore from Colombia northwestward through
the Central American offshore waters.

For the forecast, winds will be moderate or weaker across the 
offshore waters through most of the week, except for locally 
fresh SW winds from 06N to 10N, west of 87W through this 
evening. New long-period southerly swell will build seas 
slightly offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through 
tonight, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. Looking ahead, a 
large area of showers and thunderstorms located well south of the
coast of Guatemala is associated with a trough of low pressure. 
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week 
while the disturbance moves slowly west-northwestward.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Refer to the section above for details on Tropical Storm Lidia.

Elsewhere, an area of 1007 mb low pressure along the monsoon 
trough near 12N124W is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to
13N between 119W and 128W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 7 to 8 ft extend from the low northward to 20N, between 
121W and 129W. Mainly moderate winds prevail across the remainder
of the open waters, except for some fresh S winds, south of 07N 
between 105W and 125W. Seas are 6-8 ft mainly in northerly swell 
across the waters N of 16N and W of 122W. Seas are 7-9 ft in 
southerly swell S of 08N between 100W and 127W. Seas of mainly 
5-7 ft in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, Lidia will move to near 16N110W Thu morning,
16N111W Fri morning, 16N113W Sat morning, 16N114W Sun morning,
and near 16N115W Mon morning. NHC is forecasting Lidia to be a 
60 kt tropical storm Sat morning through Mon morning. Meanwhile, 
development of the low near 12N124W, if any, should be slow to 
occur while it moves little during the next couple of days. By 
this weekend, environmental conditions are forecast to become 
less conducive for further development. Elsewhere, winds of 
moderate or weaker will prevail across the remainder of the open 
waters through the next several days, locally fresh at times 
along and just N of the monsoon trough near any transient low 
pressure areas. The northerly swell across the northern waters 
will gradually decay through tonight. Meanwhile, southerly swell 
of 7-9 ft will wax and wane through the week and into the weekend
from around 05N southward, decaying thereafter.

$$
Hagen