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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 050917

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Mon Dec 5 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N98W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N98W to 11N116W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered 
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 16N 
between 116W and 120W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere
from 09N to 13N between 111W and 123W.


Recent scatterometer data indicate that the maximum winds in the
Tehuantepec region are 30 kt. As a result, the gale warning has 
been allowed to expire at 0600 UTC. Fresh to strong northerly 
winds continue to blow across the area and downwind to near 
13N96W. Seas are likely 8-12 ft within these winds. Seas generated
by this gap wind event are spreading well away from the Tehuantepec
area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far SW as 10N110W. 
Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the offshore waters
of Baja California under the influence of a ridge with seas of 
4-6 ft in NW swell, reaching 7 ft near 30N120W. Gentle to moderate
NW winds are noted per scatterometer data in the central and 
southern Gulf of California with seas of 2-4 ft. Mainly light and
variable winds with seas less than 2 ft dominate the northern 
part of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the remaining of the Mexican 
offshore waters, outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to 
gentle winds and seas of 3-5 ft primarily in NW swell are noted.

For the forecast, a weak frontal boundary will continue to approach
the Baja California Norte waters today while dissipating. Seas 
of 6-8 ft in the wake of the front will propagate across the waters
N of Punta Eugenia today before subsiding tonight into Tue. Expect
fresh to locally strong NW-N winds across the Gulf of California
Wed night into Thu as high pressure builds across the Great Basin.
Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
Wed through Fri night.


Fresh to locally strong NE-E winds are observed across the Papagayo
region and downwind to near 89W. Peak seas are estimated at 6 ft.
Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough 
along 07N, with seas of 5-7 ft based on an altimeter pass. Light 
to gentle S to SW winds and 3-5 ft seas are noted to the S of the
trough. Light to gentle winds prevail between Ecuador and the 
Galapagos Islands with seas of 3-4 ft. 

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected
in the Papagayo region mainly at night through mid-week. Seas 
are forecast to remain below 8 ft. Elsewhere, little change in 
the marine conditions is forecast. Gentle to moderate winds will 
prevail across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, 
and Ecuador. Slight seas can be expected across most of the 
offshore waters through midweek, except in the Papagayo region. 
NW swell generated from the Tehuantepec gap wind event will 
continue to move across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala 
and El Salvador today while subsiding.


A stationary front extends from 30N120W to 23N140W. Gentle to 
moderate NE winds and seas of 8-10 ft in NW swell follow the 
front. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters
mainly N of 16N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ supports an area of fresh
to locally strong NE to E winds roughly from 12N to 17N between
115W and 121W according to a recent ASCAT pass. 

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate today. 
High pressure will build across the area in the wake of the front.
This will bring moderate to fresh trades across the west-central
waters. By Tue evening, expect an increase in winds and seas 
across the west-central waters as high pressure strengthens N of
the forecast region. These marine conditions are expected to 
persist beyond Thu. Currently, model guidance suggests fresh to 
strong trade winds and seas building to 9 or 10 ft. A surface 
trough, within the ITCZ, is forecast to move westward between 
120W and 130W over the next 48-72 hours.