Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 270952

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Nov 27 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0945 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure is surging
southward over eastern Mexico toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
region in the wake of a Gulf of Mexico cold front. The pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec within and near the monsoon trough is 
inducing minimal north to northeast gale-force winds across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds will diminish later this 
morning. Prior to then, seas will peak to near 12 ft. Overnight 
altimeter data indicated seas up to 9 ft downstream of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec near 15N96W. Another gale-force gap wind event is 
possible Sun night through Mon night. Please see the latest NWS 
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at 
website://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more 


The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 
08N79W to 07N90W to 09N110W to 10N118W to 10N127W, where 
overnight scatterometer data indicate that it transitions
to the ITCZ from 10N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is seen within 120 nm north of the trough between 
94W-95W, also within 60 nm north of the trough between 95W-98W,
and within 30 nm of the trough between 109W-111W.


Please see the Special Features section above for details 
on a gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the 
northern Gulf of California with seas to 4 ft. Light and 
variable winds are over the rest of the Gulf, except for gentle 
northwest winds over the central Gulf. An area of fresh to strong
northwest to north winds are over the waters between Cabo 
Corrientes and Mazatlan. Seas are 4-6 ft offshore of the Baja 
California Peninsula mainly due to a northwest swell, and 3-5 ft 
elsewhere west-northwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec area.

Recent altimeter data indicates seas up to 9 ft downstream of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec near 15N96W.

For the forecast, gale-force north to northeast winds in the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue for several more hours, then
diminish to strong speeds and change little through Sun. Gale- 
force winds are again possible Sun night through Mon night. 
Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will develop near Cabo
Corrientes tonight through Mon.


Moderate to fresh northeast winds prevail over and downstream 
the Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north 
of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds continue south 
of the monsoon trough. Seas across the area are in the 3-5 ft 
range due to a south to southwest swell across the offshore 
waters due to a south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, fresh northeast winds will pulse to strong in 
the Papagayo region beginning Sat night. Gentle to moderate 
winds will remain elsewhere through early next week.


High pressure prevails over the northern waters. The pressure 
gradient between this high pressure and lower pressures in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh northeast to
east trades north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 
119W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area. The fresh winds are 
concentrated from 14N to 20N. Seas of 6-8 ft with these trades
are also due to northwest swell energy. Divergence aloft present
to the east of an upper-level low that is observed near 18N121W 
is helping to sustain an area of scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms from 15N to 20N between 115W- 121W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted to the east of 
this area from 16N to 20N between 110W-115W. Gentle to moderate 
northeast to east trades are elsewhere over the discussion waters
as seen in overnight ASCAT data passes. Seas of mainly 4-6 ft 
are elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will weaken through 
late Sun as a front approaches the far northwest corner of
the area. This will allow for the aforementioned fresh winds to 
diminish in coverage. The 6-8 ft seas will subside slightly to 
5-7 ft. Mainly gentle to moderate east trades will continue 
elsewhere through early next week, except for pockets of fresh 
trades west of about 129W. After late Sun, the seas of 5-7 ft are
expected to continue into early next week.


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Page last modified: Saturday, 27-Nov-2021 09:52:11 UTC