AXPZ20 KNHC 200847
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Thu Jan 20 2022
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
Gale warning for Pacific waters: A vigorous mid to upper level
low is centered near 25N140W, with an mid to upper trough
reaching from the low to near 17N110W. Divergence aloft
associated with the mid to upper trough is supporting a few
clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 16N to 19N between
118W and 120W, and numerous showers and thunderstorms from 13N
to 22N between 127W and 132W. The upper pattern is supporting a
complex low with a mean center near 21N134W, with an estimated
pressure around 1008 mb. A scatterometer satellite pass from 06
UTC indicated strong to near-gale force winds within 150 nm north
of the low pressure. Winds are expected to intensify to gale-
force by this afternoon as high pressure builds north of the
area. Seas will build to 16 ft accordingly. The low pressure and
associated gale force winds will move west of 140W Fri. Winds
and seas will diminish from 15N to 30N west of 130W through Sat.
Gulf of Tehuantepec gale warning: A cold front moving through the western Gulf of
Mexico today through Fri will bring gale- force winds over the Tehuantepec
region Fri night through into Sun. Seas will reach as high as 11
ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by early Sat. Winds and seas will
diminish over the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The ITCZ extends from 05N85W to 05N97W, and from 08N115W to
beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N
to 13N between 125W and 127W.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO
Please see the Special Features section for details about the
gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
High pressure west of the Baja California is building, supporting
moderate to occasionally fresh winds off Baja California and Gulf
of California, as shown in a 06 UTC scatterometer satellite pass.
Gentle to moderate winds persist elsewhere off Mexico. Seas are
4 to 6 ft in open waters.
For the forecast, high pressure building west of the Baja
peninsula will support NW winds across the Gulf of California
through tonight. A cold front will move into the northern Gulf of
California and the waters off Baja California Norte Sat, then
stall and dissipate over Baja California Sur and the southern
Gulf of California Sun into Mon.
OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR
High pressure north of the area is supporting strong to near-
gale NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to
near 90W. Seas across that area are in the 8 to 9 ft range. A
recent scatterometer pass showed fresh to strong N winds over the
Gulf of Panama, where seas are estimated to be 5 to 7 ft.
Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft
For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail
across the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere,
winds should remain tranquil for the next several days. Large NW
to N swell from the Gulf of Tehuantepec will impact the Guatemala
and El Salvador offshore waters Sat night through Sun night.
REMAINDER OF THE AREA
Please see Special Features for details about the Pacific gale
A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds are within 300 nm
north of a 1008 mb complex low pressure area centered near
21N133W, with seas of 8-10 ft. Gentle to moderate easterly winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted are elsewhere across the region.
For the forecast, high pressure building north of the 1008 mb low
pressure near 21N134W will support a large area of fresh to
strong E winds through Fri, reaching minimal gale force within
300 nm north of the low as it moves to a position near 24N137W by
early this afternoon. By early Fri, the low will move west 140W
and weaken substantially. Seas should peak around 16 ft through
tonight from 15N to 30N between 130W to 140W.