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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 281548

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun May 28 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 
09N84W to 10N105W to 05N131W. The ITCZ continues from 05N131W to 
beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is 
noted from 00N to 13N between 88W and 128W. Scattered moderate 
isolated strong convection is also noted E of 88W. 


Moderate NW winds prevail W of the Baja Peninsula with locally
fresh winds S Punta Eugenia and S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 4 
to 6 ft in S to SW swell. Moderate to locally N winds and seas 
of 8 ft are diminishing in the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Elsewhere, 
light to gentle winds are noted in the Gulf of California with 
slight seas. Light to gentle winds also prevail across the 
offshore waters of southwest Mexico with moderate seas. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted in the offshore waters of Oaxaca and

For the forecast, the gradient between subtropical high pressure
in the Pacific and a surface trough near the Gulf of California 
will persist through early week. Winds are expected to pulse to 
fresh during the overnight and early morning hours west of the 
Baja Peninsula during this time. Fresh to strong S to SW gap 
winds will occur in the northern Gulf of California each night 
through the forecast period. Seas will become 4-6 ft across the 
offshore waters by Monday across most of the Mexico offshore 
waters, then continue through most of the week. 


Across the offshore waters of Central America, winds are light 
to gentle. South of the monsoon trough, southerly light to gentle
winds are noted. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds prevail in the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters. Seas have began to
subside across the waters and now range 6-8 ft in southerly
swell. Scattered thunderstorms are noted in the Guatemala and El
Salvador offshore waters. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted
in the offshores of Panama and Colombia and moving across the 
offshore waters of Ecuador.

For the forecast, long-period S to SW swell will continue to subside
throughout the area and drop below 8 ft by tonight. Otherwise, 
light to gentle winds prevail north of the monsoon trough. Gentle
to moderate SW monsoon winds are expected in the South American 
offshore zones. 


High pressure of 1031 mb located northwest of the area near 
39N157W extends a ridge over the eastern Pacific. The associated
pressure gradient is supporting gentle to moderate anticyclonic 
flow across the majority of the area. Gentle to locally moderate 
southerly winds prevail south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ to the 
Equator. Seas range 4-7 ft across most of the waters.

For the forecast, no major changes are expected. The ridge will 
continue to dominate the region north of 10N and west of 110W 
through early week. Mainly moderate NE trade winds will persist 
across the southern periphery of the ridge, especially west of 
120W. Long- period S to SW swell in the eastern tropical Atlantic
will gradually subside below 8 ft tonight.