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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261640
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Thu May 26 2022

Corrected Remainder of the Area section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The morning satellite visible imagery shows that deep 
convection has become a bit more concentrated near a surface 
trough that is currently south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region 
along a position from near 15N95W to 10N96W. This convection is 
in the form of the numerous moderate type from 12N to 15N 
between 91W-95W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is 
identified from 09N to 15N between 90W-95W. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend 
while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 
to 10 kt. This area of low pressure will bring an increase in 
winds and seas to southern Mexico starting Fri and into the 
weekend. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the 
progress of this system. This system has a medium chance of 
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please 
refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at 
wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

The monsoon axis extends from a 1011 mb low over northwestern
Colombia to 12N98W to 12N109W to 10N119W to 09N130W, where latest 
scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 
beyond the area at 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 102W- 
105W, within 120 nm south of the the trough 105W-108W, and within
120 nm north of the trough between 104W-108W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 113W- 
115W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 115W-119W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 
02N to 09N between 77W-82W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Specail Features above for details on a potential
first tropical cyclone of the 2022 eastern Pacific season.

Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters,
except for a small area of moderate winds noted offshore of Los 
Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters 
off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California.

Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds
west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the 
weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through 
the remainder of the week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in a southwest swell. 

For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec is expected to bring an an increase in winds and 
seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador 
beginning Fri and into the weekend. Please see above for more 
information on the low pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate 
winds will continue across the forecast waters through early 
next week. Southwest swell will gradually decrease through today.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected

A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 13N and
west of 110W. The pressure gradient between this area and lower 
pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to 
moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. 
Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. 
Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. 
Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area.

A tropical disturbance south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is 
being monitored for tropical development. Shower and 
thunderstorm activity have diminished in associated with the 
disturbance that is located several hundred miles off the coast 
of southwestern Mexico. Significant development of this 
disturbance is no longer anticipated as environmental conditions 
are becoming increasingly unfavorable.

For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to decrease 
Fri. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing an 
increase in winds.

$$
Aguirre